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1、RELIABILITYMODELINGANDEVALUATIONINAGINGPOWERSYSTEMSAThesisbyHAG-KWENKIMSubmittedtotheOfficeofGraduateStudiesofTexasA&MUniversityinpartialfulfillmentoftherequirementsforthedegreeofMASTEROFSCIENCEAugust2009MajorSubject:ElectricalEngineeringRELIABILITYMODELINGANDEVALU
2、ATIONINAGINGPOWERSYSTEMSAThesisbyHAG-KWENKIMSubmittedtotheOfficeofGraduateStudiesofTexasA&MUniversityinpartialfulfillmentoftherequirementsforthedegreeofMASTEROFSCIENCEApprovedby:ChairofCommittee,ChananSinghCommitteeMembers,KarenL.Butler-PurryAlexSprintsonLewisNtaim
3、oHeadofDepartment,CostasN.GeorghiadesAugust2009MajorSubject:ElectricalEngineeringiiiABSTRACTReliabilityModelingandEvaluationinAgingPowerSystems.(August2009)Hag-KwenKim,B.A,KangneungNationalUniversityChairofAdvisoryCommittee:Dr.ChananSinghRenewalprocesshasbeenoftene
4、mployedasamathematicalmodelofthefailureandrepaircycleofcomponentsinpowersystemreliabilityassessment.Thisimpliesthatafterrepair,thecomponentisassumedtoberestoredtobeinasgoodasnewconditionintermsofreliabilityperspective.However,someofthecomponentsmayenteranagingstage
5、asthesystemgrowsolder.ThisthesisdescribeshowagingcharacteristicsofasystemmayimpactthecalculationofcommonlyusedquantitativereliabilityindicessuchasLossofLoadExpectation(LOLE),LossofLoadDuration(LOLD),andExpectedEnergyNotSupplied(EENS).Tobuildthehistoryofworkingandfa
6、ilurestatesofasystem,StochasticPointProcessmodelingbasedonSequentialMonteCarlosimulationisintroduced.PowerLawProcessismodeledasthefailureratefunctionofagingcomponents.Powersystemreliabilityanalysiscanbemadeatthegenerationcapacitylevelwheretransmissionconstraintsmay
7、beincluded.ThesimulationtechniqueisappliedtotheSingleAreaIEEEReliabilityTestSystem(RTS)andtheresultsareevaluatedandcompared.ivTheresultsshowthatreliabilityindicesbecomeincreasedastheageofthesystemgrows.vACKNOWLEDGEMENTSIwouldliketoexpresssincereappreciationtomycomm
8、itteechair,Dr.ChananSingh,andcommitteemembers,Dr.KarenL.Butler-Purry,Dr.AlexSprintson,andDr.LewisNtaimo,fortheirguidanceandencouragementduringthe
