IESO 10 Year Outlook - 10YearOutlook_2005jul

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1、10-YEAROUTLOOK:AnAssessmentoftheAdequacyofGenerationandTransmissionFacilitiestoMeetFutureElectricityNeedsinOntarioFromJanuary2006toDecember2015IESO_REP_0245v2.010-YearOutlookThispageintentionallyleftblank.August15,2005PublicPageiiIESO_REP_0245v2.010-YearOutlookExecutiveSummaryTheprovinc

2、ialgovernmentʹsplantophaseoutcoal‐firedgenerationinfavourofcleanerformsofgenerationrepresentsoneofthemostsignificantundertakingsinthe100‐yearhistoryofOntarioʹselectricitysector.Aginggenerationfacilitiesandthecontinuedincreaseindemandforelectricityaddtotheurgencyofproceedingwithnewgenera

3、tingandtransmissionfacilitiesoverthenext10years.Overthelast12months650MWofnewgas‐firedgenerationhasbeenputinplaceand515MWofnucleargenerationand370MWofrenewablegenerationisexpectedtobeinservicewithinthenext18months.Therearealsoanumberofprojectstotallingmorethan9,000MWofadditionalcapacity

4、thatareinvariousstagesofdiscussion,developmentornegotiation.TimelyprogresstoachievethisadditionalcapacitymustcontinueifOntarioistoensureareliablesupplyofelectricityoverthenextdecadeandbeyond.This10‐yearOutlookfromtheIndependentElectricitySystemOperator(IESO)providesanassessmentofthedema

5、nd‐supplypicturefortheprovinceoverthenextdecadeandprovidesaplanidentifyingthetimingandrequirementsofsystemchangesneededtomeetthegovernment’scoalshutdowntimeframe.UndertheprovisionsofBill100,theOntarioPowerAuthority(OPA)isresponsibleforlongtermforecasting.However,theIESOhasagreedtoproduc

6、ethe10‐yearOutlookin2005whiletheOPAdetermineshowbesttoaddressitsforecastingresponsibilities.ElectricitySupplyOutlookTherehavebeenanumberofpositivedevelopmentsinOntario’selectricitysectorsincetheIESOpublishedtheprevious10‐yearOutlookonApril29,2004.Thesenewdevelopmentsincludetheintroducti

7、onof650MWofgas‐firedgenerationintotheOntariomarket,thedecisiontoproceedwithrestartingPickeringUnit1(bringinganadditional515MWonlineinSeptember2005),andtheannouncementof2,200MWofnewsupplyinitiativesand395MWinrenewableenergyprojectsundertheprovincialgovernment’srecentRequestforPr