outlook the year of jpy weakness

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1、MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHGlobalCurrencyResearchTeamForresearchanalysts,pleaseseecontactlistatthebackofthismaterial.November20,2012MSMajorCurrencyForecastsCurrencies1Q132Q133Q134Q13EUR/USD1.341.31.251.2GlobalFX2013OutlookUSD/JPY84878990GBP/USD1.611.601.581.54U

2、SD/CHF0.900.920.961.00TheYearofJPYWeaknessUSD/CAD0.960.970.981.00AUD/USD1.041.020.990.96NZD/USD0.840.830.820.80TopTrades:EUR/JPY113113111108EUR/GBP0.830.810.790.78BuyUSD/JPY:Target92.00EUR/CHF1.201.201.201.20EUR/SEK9.008.908.808.70WiththeBoJlikelytoengage

3、inamuchmoreaggressiveEUR/NOK7.407.207.107.05easingstance,thisshouldcatalyzeJPYweakening.USD/CNY6.306.306.306.30USD/KRW1075110011201080SellEUR/USD:Entry1.3400,Target1.2000USD/BRL2.102.102.102.10USD/MXN12.6012.8013.3512.40EithertheEURneedstocorrectlowertosu

4、pporttheUSD/TRY1.761.781.811.77periphery,oritrisksbreakingapart,inourview.USD/ZAR8.859.009.259.00Note:Forecastsforend-of-periodSellAUD/USD:Target0.9000YearAhead2013GlobalCurrencyOverviewP2AsgrowthandratedifferentialsplayagainstAustralia,TopTradesfor2013P1

5、2foreigninvestorsarelikelytorethinktheirsafe-havenplays.EUR:AYearofTwoHalvesP17CurrencyStatusChangesP22SellJPYAgainstAXJBasket:Target90.00USD:ThePolicyHandoffP27ExportgrowthwillshiftfromemergingAsianeconomiestoCurrentAccountandtheUSDP31developedonesastheJ

6、PYweakensagainstitspeers.CommoditiesPrices–WinnersandLosersP35SellEUR/CAD:Target1.2000CorporateCashDrivingCurrenciesP41USgrowthoutperformanceandadivergenceininterest-FXVol:ProspectforResurgenceP44ratepathsarelikelytopromptfurtherCADgains.ForecastsP48Money

7、MarketFundsLeaveJapanBuyUSD/SEK:Target7.2500102.5-7.5HeavyexposureintoawaningEurozone,weakeconomicMoneyMarketinflows(Gross)(one-yearsum)100.0-5.0data,andfurtherRiksbankratecutswillweighonSEK.97.5-2.5BuyEUR/CZK:Entry25.20Target26.5095.00.0WebelievetheCzech

8、NationalBankwillincreasinglylook92.52.5snoYitofosterCZKweaknessinordertostimulatetheeconomy.P90.05.0blliJ/DdnSaU87.57.5suoBuyMXN/JPY:Entry5.9700Target6.3000h85.010.0tStrongfundamentalscombinedwithareformeffortshould