资源描述：
《航空业深度研究：识别最大机会》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、COREAerospaceOrderBookDeepDive-IdentifyingMAXRisk&MuchMoreAheadoftheParisAirshow,ouranalysisofAirbus&Boeingbacklogsidentifiesairlinesthatareover-orunder-ordered.Specifically,forMAX,wesee28%ofbacklogashighrisk.INDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.Aerospace&DefensePOSITIVEUnchangedU.S.Aerospace&DefenseDavid
2、Strauss+12125265580EquityResearch6June2019Backlogs10%under-ordered:Toevaluatethehealthofthecommercialaircraftbacklog,weestimateaircraftdemand(growthplusreplacement)individuallyforeachof500+airlinesglobally.Assuming5%fleetgrowthanda4%annualreplacementrate,weestimatetheairlinesandaircraft
3、lessorsinaggregateareunder-orderedby~1,000aircraft,equivalentto~10%ofthetotalbacklog.Seeincludedlistofindividualairlinesthatweidentifyasmostover(AirAsia,LionAir,VietJet,EmiratesandIndiGo)orunder-ordered(AirChina,American,ChinaSouthern,DeltaandUnited).Moreunder-orderedthanlastyear:At10%,w
4、eestimatethebacklogismoreunder-orderedthanlastyear(6%),andthemostunder-orderedsincepriortothefinancialcrisis,astheoverallbacklogdeclinedforthefirsttimesince2010whileunderlyingdemanddrivers(trafficgrowthandreplacement)remainsupportive.Ourmodelindicatesthatprioraerospacedownturnshaveallbee
5、nprecededbyover-ordering,albeitwiththelastdownturn(post9/11)atarelativelylowlevelofover-ordering.Backlogbyaircraftmodel:WeestimatebacklogsatbothAirbus(-9%)andBoeing(-8%)areunder-ordered.Byindividualaircraftmodel,weseeunder-orderingfor787(-42%),A330(-40%),A350(-31%),A220(-27%),737(-6%)and
6、777(-6%),whilebacklogslookover-orderedforA320(+2%),E2(+3%)andA380(+24%).28%ofMAXbacklogathighrisk:Whilethe737backlogisunder-orderedinaggregate,weidentifyseveralairlinesthatareover-orderedandwebelieveatrisktodefer/cancelonbackofMAXgrounding/safetyconcerns.Specifically,weidentify28%oftheba
7、cklogashighrisk,whichreflectscustomersthatweestimateareover-orderedwithmixedfleets(Airbus/Boeing).Weestimatethatthesecustomersareover-orderedby~750aircraft(30%ofthebacklog).ThisincludesLionAir,VietJetandSingapore.NorthAmerica/Europemostunder-ordered;Asia/MiddleEastover-or
