亚洲科技硬件行业：尚无复苏迹象，全面反弹可能出现在明年春季之后

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1、12June2019AsiaPacific/JapanEquityResearchTechnologyTechnologysectorResearchAnalystsAkinoriKanemoto81345507363akinori.kanemoto@credit-suisse.comHideyukiMaekawa81345509723hideyuki.maekawa@credit-suisse.comMikaNishimura81345507369mika.nishimura@credit-suisse.c

2、omYoshiyasuTakemura81345507358yoshiyasu.takemura@credit-suisse.comSayakaShimonishi81345507364sayaka.shimonishi@credit-suisse.comCOMMENTAsiafeedback(Hardware):Nosignsofrecovery;full-scalereboundlikelyafternextspring■Summary:WeconductedourperiodicsurveyoftheK

3、orean,TaiwaneseandChinesetechmarketsinlateMay–earlyJune.TheinventoryadjustmentinthegreaterChinaareanotedinourprevioussurveystillshowsnosignofabating.Indeed,theprolongedUS–ChinatradewarandsanctionsagainstHuaweihavecloudedtheoutlookfurther.Withinventoryadjust

4、mentstartingtoextendtoautomotivedevices—chieflyingreaterChina—sentimentamongsalesagentsanddevicemakershasweakenedfurther,andwiththeinventoryadjustmentthatstartedinSeptember2018beingprolongedbypolitics,somerespondentstellustheycannotmakeouttheroadahead.While

5、othersanticipaterecoveryfromJul−Sep,thisissomewhatoptimisticinourview.Inthesmartphonearena,productionadjustmentatHuaweisuggestsmomentumheadingintothesecondhalfoftheyearislikelytobefarweakerthantheseasonalnorm.■Focalpointsinhardwareanddevices:(1)Huaweihasdow

6、ngradedits2019productionplanfrom300mnto240mnhandsets(140mnin1H,100mnin2H),withproductiontargetsslashedbyaround35%fromJuly.(2)WeexpectiPhoneproductiontorisefrom37mnhandsetsinJan–Marto38mninApr–Jun,59mninJul–Sep(including31mnnewmodelhandsets)and69mninOct–Dec(

7、48mn),foratotalof203mn(79mn)in2019asawhole.(3)SmartphoneproductionatSamsungremainsoncoursetoreach290mnhandsetsovertheyear,butthesanctionsagainstHuaweicouldpushthistoaround300mn,chieflythroughincreasedoutputofmidrangeASeriesphones.(4)Makerscontinuetoupgradec

8、ameramodulespecsandaresettointroduce64MPand108MPsensorsin2020asupgradesto48MPresolution.(5)Virtuallynocomponentsareintightsupply,withconditionsmostfavorableforCMOSimagesensors(CIS).■Stockcalls:Weremain