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1、DeutscheBankResearchAsiaChinaUtilitiesUtilitiesIndustryChinaPowerT&DEquipmentDate13June2019RecommendationChangeUHVintheprice,shiftingfocustoeIoTChina'sPowerTransmission&Distribution(T&D)Equipmentsectorshouldseeanearningsrecoveryduring2019-20,thankstoninetran
2、smissionprojectsproposedbytheNationalEnergyAdministration(NEA)in3Q18.Thetenderingprocesshasbeeninlinewithexpectationsandwebelievethatthisisalreadypricedinduetotheprojects'highvisibility.Overall,wearemoreconservativethanthemarketregard-ingthetotalgridinvestment
3、recovery,andwebelievethatthefocuswillstructurallyshifttotheelectricInternetofThings(eIoT),anewphaseofsmartgridupgrades,inwhichNARITech(reiteratingBuy)hasadominantposition.WedowngradeXJElectrictoHold,aswesee15%downsideriskto2019Econsensusearnings.Inthisreport,w
4、eprovideadetaileddiscussionofpowergridinvestmenttrends,progressinultra-highvoltage(UHV),eIoToutlooksandstockimplications.Gridinvestmentisanti-cyclical,butlikelyonlyamildrecoverythistimeSource:DeutscheBankWeseeanegativehistoricalcorrelationbetweengridcoinvestme
5、ntandGDPgrowth.Thegovernmenttendstoencouragemoregridinvestmentwhentheecon-omyisunderpressure,whichonceagainoccurredin3Q18whentheNEAannouncedplansforninetransmissionprojects.However,apartfromthesepro-jects,webelievethatthegridco'sincentiveforinvestmenthasbeenpa
6、rtiallycom-promisedbyT&Dtariffcutsfortwoconsecutiveyears.Weforecastslightrecoveriesingridinvestmentof3%/5%in2019/20E,withanincreasingcontributionfromsec-ondaryequipment(forwhichNARI/XJaretheleadingplayers).UHVprogresslargelyinline,eIoTisthenewfocusYTD,weseein-
7、lineprogressforUHVtendering,withslightdelaysinprojectapprov-als.Visibilityfortheannouncedprojectsishigh,astheyarepartofgovernmenteffortstocountertheeconomicdownturn.Meanwhile,additionalUHVprojectsaremuchlessvisibleintheenvironmentofmoderatingpowerdemandgrowth.
8、Gridinvestmentfocusshouldstructurallyshiftmoretowardsmartgridupgrades,withanestimatedinvestmentineIoTofaroundRmb80bnover2019-21E,ofwhichNARIshouldbethekeybeneficiary,withoverhalfof
