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1、July9,2012EnergyWeeklyCommoditiesResearchBrentshiftsintobackwardationasphysicalmarkettightensWhileconcernsoverthepaceofworldeconomicgrowthremain,thephysicalcrudeoilmarketshavebeentighteningasfurtherUSandEUsanctions,whichcameintoeffectonJune28andJuly1,forceIraniancrud
2、eoiloffthemarketandNorway’soilworkersstrikereducessuppliesfromtheNorthSea.Meanwhile,CentralBanksaroundtheworldcontinuetoadoptmeasurestoattempttosupportworldeconomicgrowth,andindirectly,worldoildemand.Tighterphysicalmarketsliftcrudeoilpricesandshiftnear-datedBrenttime
3、spreadsbackintobackwardation.DavidGreely(212)902-2850david.greely@gs.comAfterspendingthelasttwoweeksonJuneincontango,near-datedBrentGoldman,Sachs&Co.timespreadsmovedbackintobackwardationinthebeginningofJulyasfurtherUSandEUsanctionsagainstIranwentintoeffectandanoilSte
4、fanWieler,CFAworkersstrikeinNorwaycutproductionbyupto250thousandb/d.(212)357-7486stefan.wieler@gs.comGoldman,Sachs&Co.InabilitytoobtaininsurancefortankerscarryingIraniancrudeoilisSamanthaDartforcingrefinerstosourceothercrudeoils.+44(20)7552-9350samantha.dart@gs.comTh
5、einabilitytoobtaininsuranceforoiltankershasforcedSouthKoreatoGoldmanSachsInternationalstopallimportsfromIranbeginninginJuly.Instead,SouthKoreanrefinersbeganbuyingNorthSeaFortiescrudeinlateJune,supportedbyanEU-SouthKoreafreetradeagreementthatallowsSouthKoreanoilrefine
6、rstosave3%onimportdutiesofNorthSeaoilgrades.Othercountrieswilllikelyfollowsuit,withonlytheJapanesegovernmentprovidinginsurancetoitsrefiners,whichshouldbeabletoresumeimportsfromIraninlateJuly.IndiaandChinaarereportedlyallowingIraniantankerswithIranianinsurancetodelive
7、ryoiltotheirports.However,thiswilllikelystrainthecapacityoftheIraniantankerfleet,themajorityofwhichhadrecentlybeenpressedintoserviceforuseasfloatingstorage.ManagementlockoutofstrikingoilworkscouldshutdownallofNorway’sNorthSeaproduction,butwilllikelyforceNorwegiangove
8、rnmenttointervenetoendstrike.ShouldthelockoutgointoeffectasscheduledformidnightatthestartofTuesdayJuly10,thepotentiallossof2million
