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1、February14,2012GlobalEnergyWeeklyCommoditiesResearchDownsiderisksdiminishing,upsiderisksrisingAftertradinginanincreasinglynarrowrangearound$110/bbloverthepasteightmonths,Brentcrudeoilpricesjumped$7/bblthismonth,toover$118/bblandtowardour3-monthtargetof$120/bbl,thehighes
2、tlevelsincelastsummer.Webelievethisnarrowtradingrangebeliedthehighdegreeofriskfacingthecrudeoilmarket,withtherelativestabilityinoilpricescreatingafalsesenseofstabilityinoilmarketfundamentals.WeseetherecentjumpinBrentcrudeoilpricesasdrivenbythefactthatthedownsiderisksare
3、diminishingwhiletheupsiderisksarerising.OECDtotalpetroleuminventoriesendJanuaryatthelowestlevelsince2008,despitestrongSaudiandLibyanproductionDavidGreely(212)902-2850david.greely@gs.comSaudiArabiahasraiseditsproductionto30-yearhighsandLibyancrudeGoldman,Sachs&Co.oilprod
4、uctionhasbeenreturningmuchfasterthanexpected.ThisrisingproductionslowedthestrongdrawonworldinventoriesobservedduringStefanWieler,CFAmostof2011,butrecentdatafromtheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)(212)357-7486stefan.wieler@gs.comshowsOECDtotalpetroleuminventoriesattheirlow
5、estendofJanuaryGoldman,Sachs&Co.levelsince2008,andimpliesthattheoilmarketsupply-demandbalancehasshiftedintoaseasonally-adjusteddeficitonceagain.Impliedworldoildemandup900thousandb/dyear-over-yearin4Q11,inlinewith3.4%globaleconomicgrowthandacceleratingImpliedworldoildema
6、ndwasup900thousandb/dyoyin4Q11accordingtorecentIEAdata.Thisisinlinewithworldeconomicgrowthof3.4%in4Q11,giventhatBrentcrudeoilpriceswereup25%yoy.WhilepreliminarydatafromlastmonthsuggestedthatglobaldemandgrowthslowedfurtherfromNovembertoDecember,therevisionsinthemostrecen
7、tIEAdataimplythatworldoildemandgrowthacceleratedsharplyto1.25millionb/dyoyinDecember,andacceleratedfurtherinJanuary.OPECsparecapacitylowastheworldeconomicrecoveryisjustgettingonamoresolidfootingThefactthatworldoilinventorieshavenotbuiltsignificantlydespiteSaudiArabiapum
8、pingatitshighestlevelsin30yearsandLibyanproductionreturningtothemarketsuggeststhattheincreasedsupplieshavebeen
