Natixis Weekly Commodities 17.3.2011

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1、.17March2011/N11ChainreactionContentsCommoditymarketsareexperiencingsubstantialdislocationcausedbythedesperateeventsinJapanoverthelastweek.Amidthechaos,wetrytoelicitthemainimplicationsforenergyandmetalmarkets.Focus….…..Chainreaction…..….3Energy.…………………..................4Amidheightenedpolitical

2、tensionsinLibyaandtheMiddleEast,theIEAisstartingtoPreciousmetals…….……………….7considertheramificationsofanoilsupplyshock.Basemetals...……..…….…………..9AgriculturalCommodities……..….13Goldpricesdropdespitetheheightenedeconomicandpoliticaluncertainty,raisingStrategies…………………………..16interestingquestionsa

3、boutinvestorpositioningandmotivation.Quantitativeanalysis……………...17Basemetalsarecaughtbetweenanear-termslumpinJapanesedemandandtheTechnicalanalysis…………………18prospectofaneventualreconstructionboom.Agriculturalpriceswerealreadyslipping,withthisweek’sdisruptiontoJapanesedemandextendingtherecentpri

4、cecorrection.FORECASTSForecast(avgprice)LastPrice2010avg2011EnergySpotBrentUSD/bbl109.7180.399.6WTIUSD/bbl98.5379.695.3HenryHub(gas)USD/mmBtu3.984.44.6PreciousmetalsSpotGoldUSD/oz1402.0312301225BasemetalsSpotAluminiumUSD/ton242721802625CopperUSD/ton932875609000NickelUSD/ton249472180024500LeadU

5、SD/ton259721602650ZincUSD/ton226321702525AGENDAPublishedbytheResearchdepartmentofNATIXISDateIndicators/EventsPublicationdirector:PatrickArtus23/03/11USDoEWeeklyOilandOilProductInventoriesAuthors:NicBrownLysúPáez-CortezBernardDahdahMicaellaFeldsteinFocusChainreactionThe9.0earthquakejustofftheEa

6、stcoastofJapanlastFriday,Japan-percentageofelectricitygeneratedby:alongsidethetsunamithatfollowedimmediatelyafterwards,hashadasignificantimpactontheJapaneseeconomy.AsHydrowellashorrificlossofhumanlife,infrastructurehasbeenThermaldamagedthatwillhaveeconomicrepercussionsaroundthe80%Nuclear80%wor

7、ld.Here,weattempttoassessthelikelyimpactupon70%70%commoditymarkets.60%60%50%50%TheKobeearthquakeof1995,withamagnitudeof“only”6.8,40%40%causeddamageworthapproximately2.5%ofJapan’sGDP.Oneinfivebuildingsintheworsthit-areacollapsed,andittoo