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1、http://www.paper.edu.cnOPERATIONALCASHFLOWATRISKFORCHINA’SREALESTATELISTED1COMPANIESabcLiyanHan,JinxiaLiuandChunyueDua,b,cSchoolofEconomicsandManagement,BeihangUniversity,Beijing100083,ChinaAbstractCashflowatrisk(CFaR)iscrucialtofirms’operationanddeterminestheeffectofriskmanagement.ByusingCryst
2、alBall(CB),thepapermodelstheoperationalcashflowatriskinordertoassessthefinancialcontrolstatusforChina’slistedrealestatecompanies,whichinvolvestheopportunities,strengthsandweaknessesofthereferredcompanies.Theempiricalresultsshowthattherealestatecompany'soperationalcashflowsatriskhavebeencontroll
3、edineffect,andtherealestatemarketismovingtotheexpectedtargetguidedbythemacroeconomicpolicy.Keywords:CashFlowatRisk(CFaR);RealEstateCompanies;FinancialControl;Distribution-FittingIntroductionChinastockmarketslumpedintodepressionforalongperiodsince2001.Fortunatelyitbecameboomingin2006.ShanghaiSto
4、ckIndexandShenzhenStockIndexroseby126.55%and125.42%separately,andChinaRealEstateIndexincreased168.03%,comparedwiththeyearof2005.Moreinvestorspaidattentionstothesecuritymarketin2007.Inthelasttradingdayof2007,thethreeindexesaboveincreased96.66%,162.81%and144.23%respectively.Thetotalmarketvalueofr
5、ealestatewasupto3.9hundredsofbillionYuan,andthecirculatingvaluewasupto2.6hundredsofbillionYuan,andtheirincreasingrateswere187%and206%.Markup(%)20151050Time(week)-516111621263136414651566166717681869196-10-15-20Figure1Rise-FallofShanghaiStockIndex,ShenzhenStockIndexandChinaRealEstateIndex(Dataso
6、urces:ChinaStatisticalBureau;Pink,blueandyellowlinesstandforrealestateindex,ShanghaiandShenzhenStockindex,respectively)1TheresearchisfinanciallysupportedbyResearchFundofChinaMinistryofEducationforPh.D.Development，No.20050006025.1http://www.paper.edu.cnTherealestateisoneofthemostimportantblockso
7、fstockmarketfromtheexperiencesoftheUSA,JapanandHongKong.AstothefutureofChinastockmarket,therealestateindustrywillbethecoreoftheA-sharemarket.FromFigure1,wecanseethatthemarkupoftherealestateindexhaslargerchangesinamplitudethanShang
