巴黎气候协议能否拯救世界(纽约时报)

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1、HopeFromParis巴黎气候协议能否拯救世界?保罗克鲁格曼翻译:经雷DidtheParisclimateaccord协议savecivilization?Maybe.Thatmaynotsoundlikearingingendorsement,butit'sactuallythebestclimatenewswe'vehadinaverylongtime.Thisagreementcouldstillfollowthepathofthe1997KyotoProtocol,whichseemedlikeabigdealbutendedupbeingcomplete

2、lyineffectual.Buttherehavebeenimportantchangesintheworldsincethen,whichmayfinallyhavecreatedthepreconditionsforactiononglobalwarmingbeforeit'stoolate.Untilveryrecentlythereweretwohugeroadblocksinthewayofanykindofglobaldealonclimate:China'ssoaringconsumptionofcoal,andtheimplacable不能安抚的；难

3、和解的；不能缓和的oppositionofAmerica'sRepublicanParty.Thefirstseemedtomeanthatglobalgreenhouseemissionswouldriseinexorablynomatterwhatwealthycountriesdid,whilethesecondmeantthatthebiggestofthosewealthycountrieswasunabletomakecrediblepromises,andhenceunabletolead.巴黎气候协议能拯救人类文明吗？有可能。这样的背书听起来也许不是很

4、坚定，但在气候问题上，我们确实很久没有听到这么好的消息了。这份协议最终也许会和1997年的《京都议定书》一个下场，在当时看起来很不得了，结果完全没有用。然而，这个世界后来发生了很多变化，最终促成了对全球变暖采取行动的意向，但求一切不要发展到不可收拾的地步。达成全球气候协议的道路上一直横亘henggen着两大障碍:中国煤炭消耗的激增，和美国共和党的顽固反对。前者似乎意味着，无论富国怎么做，全球温室气体排放的增加都将是不可避免的，而后者则显示最大的那个富国无法做可信的承诺，因此也就不能它来带头。Buttherehavebeenimportantchangesonbothf

5、ronts.然而这两方面都出现了重要的变化。Ononeside，thereisavisibleshiftinChineseattitudes--oratanyrate,ashiftthatwouldbevisibleifthesmogweren'tsothick.Seriously,Chinafacesahugeairqualitycrisis,broughton(bringon导致)largelybycoal-burning,whichmakesitfarmorewillingtoweanitselffrom使放弃；使戒除；使脱离（坏伙伴）theworstformo

6、ffossilfuelconsumption化石燃料消耗.AndChina'seconomicgrowth--realincomepercapitahasquadrupledsince1997--alsomeansthatithasarapidlygrowingmiddleclassthatdemandsahigherqualityoflife,includingairthat'srelativelysafetobreathe.SoChinaisplayingaverydifferentrolenowthanitdidinthepast.Oneindicator:so

7、meoftheusualsuspectsontherighthavesuddenlychangedtheirline.TheyusedtoarguethatU.S.emissionlimitswouldbeuseless,becauseChinawouldjustkeeppolluting;nowthey'restartingtoarguethatU.S.actionisn'tnecessary,becauseChinawillcutcoalconsumptionwhateverwedo.一方面，中国的态度转变是清晰可见的一一或者说，要不是雾霾那么重