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1、OneTheStockMarketinHistoricalPerspectiveWhenAlanGreenspan,thenChairoftheFederalReserveBoard,usedthetermirrationalexuberancetodescribethebehaviorofstockmarketinvestors,theworldfixatedonthosewords.1Hespokeatablack-tiedinnerinWashington,D.C.,onDecember5,1996,andthetelevisedspeechwasf
2、ollowedtheworldover.Assoonasheutteredthesewords,stockmarketsdroppedprecipitously.InJapan,theNikkeiindexdropped3.2%;inHongKong,theHangSengdropped2.9%;andinGermany,theDAXdropped4%.InLondon,theFTSE100wasdown4%atonepointduringtheday,andintheUnitedStates,thenextmorning,theDowJonesIndus
3、trialAveragewasdown2.3%nearthebeginningoftrading.Thesharpreactionofthemarketsallovertheworldtothosetwowordsinthemiddleofastaidandunremarkablespeechseemedabsurd.Thiseventmadeforanamusingstoryaboutthecrazinessofmarkets,astorythatwastoldforatimearoundtheworld.Theamusingstorywasforgot
4、tenastimewentby,butnotthewordsirrationalexuberance,whichwerereferredtoagainandagain.Greenspandidnotcointhephraseirrationalexuberance,buthedidcauseittobeattachedtoaviewabouttheinstabilityofspeculativemarkets.Thechainofstockmarketeventscausedbyhisutteringthesewordsmadethewordsseemde
5、scriptiveofessentialreality.GraduallytheybecameGreenspan’smostfamousquote—acatchphraseforeveryonewhofollowsthemarket.Whydopeoplestillrefersomuchtoirrationalexuberanceyearslater?Ibelievethatthewordshavebecomeausefulnameforthekindofsocialphenomenonthatperceptivepeoplesawwiththeirown
6、eyeshappeninginthe1990s,andthatinfact,itappears,hashappenedagainandagaininhistory,whenmarketshavebeenbiduptounusuallyhighandunsustainablelevelsundertheinfluenceofmarketpsychology.Manyperceptivepeoplewereremarking,asthegreatsurgeinthestockmarketofthe1990scontinued,thattherewassomet
7、hingpalpablyirrationalintheair,andyetthenatureoftheirrationalitywassubtle.Therewasnotthekindofinvestoreuphoriaormadnessdescribedbysomestorytellers,whochronicledearlierspeculativeexcesseslikethestockmarketboomofthe1920s.Perhapsthosestorytellerswereembellishingthestory.Irrationalexu
8、beranceisnotthatcrazy.Theonce-pop
