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1、IrrationalExuberanceIrrationalExuberanceREVISEDANDEXPANDEDTHIRDEDITION________________________RobertJ.ShillerPrincetonUniversityPressPrincetonandOxfordDisclosure:InadditiontobeingaprofessoratYaleUniversity,theauthoriscurrentlyworkingpart-timewithStandard&Poor’
2、stoproducehomepriceindices;withtheChicagoMercantileExchange,whichmaintainsafuturesmarketfortheS&P/Case-ShillerHomePriceIndices,aspartoftheCompetitiveMarketsAdvisoryCouncilattheCMEGroup;andwithBarclaysBankanditsaffiliatesinproducingvariousinvestmentproducts.Not
3、hinginthisbookconstitutes,orshouldbeconstruedas,eitheranoffertosellorasolicitationofanoffertopurchaseanysecurities,includinganysecuritiesthatmayatanytimebeofferedforsaleorsoldbyanyoftheabove-namedpersons.IntheUnitedStates,offerstosellandsolicitationsofoffersto
4、buyanysecuritiesmaybemadeonlybyaprospectus(asdefinedintheSecuritiesActof1933,asamended)deliveredtotheprospectivepurchasers.Similarregulationsapplyinothercountries.Thisbookcontainsvariousforward-lookingstatementsbasedontheauthor’sprojections,hypotheses,forecast
5、s,estimates,beliefs,andprognosesaboutfutureevents.Allforward-lookingstatementscontainedhereinreflectsolelytheauthor’sopinionsaboutsuchfutureeventsandaresubjecttosignificantuncertainty.Actualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthosedescribedinsuchforward-lookingstatem
6、ents.Copyright©2015RobertJ.ShillerNobellecturecopyright©2013TheNobelFoundationPublishedbyPrincetonUniversityPress,41WilliamStreet,Princeton,NewJersey08540IntheUnitedKingdom:PrincetonUniversityPress,6OxfordStreet,Woodstock,OxfordshireOX201TWpress.princeton.eduJ
7、acketdesignbySteveAttardo/NINETYNORTHAllRightsReservedLibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataShiller,RobertJ.Irrationalexuberance/RobertJ.Shiller.—Revisedandexpandedthirdedition.pagescmIncludesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN978-0-691-16626-1(hard
8、cover:alk.paper)1.Stocks—UnitedStates.2.Stockexchanges—UnitedStates.3.Stocks—Prices—UnitedStates.4.Realproperty—Prices—UnitedStates.5.Risk.6.DowJonesindustrialaverage.I.Title.HG491
