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1、IrrationalExuberanceSECONDEDITIONRobertJ.ShillerPrincetonUniversityPressPrincetonandOxfordDisclosure.Theauthoristheco-founderandprincipaloftwoU.S.firms:MacroSecuritiesResearchLLC(headedbyAllanWeiss)andMacroFinancialLLC(headedbySamuelMasucci)thatareinthebusinessofissuingsecurities
2、.Nothinginthisbookconstitutesorshouldbeconstruedaseitheranoffertosellorthesolicitationofanoffertobuyanysecurities,includinganysecuritiesthatmayatanytimebeofferedforsalebyMacroSecuritiesResearchLLCorMacroFinancialLLC.IntheUnitedStates,offerstosellandsolicitationsofofferstobuyanyse
3、curitiesmaybemadeonlybyaprospectus(asdefinedintheSecuritiesActof1933,asamended)deliveredtotheprospectivepurchasers.Similarregulationsapplyinothercountries.Thisbookcontainsvariousforward-lookingstatementsbasedontheauthor'sprojections,hypotheses,forecasts,estimates,beliefs,andprogn
4、osesaboutfutureevents.Allforward-lookingstatementscontainedhereinreflectsolelytheauthor'sopinionsaboutsuchfutureeventsandaresubjecttosignificantuncertainty.Actualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthosedescribedinsuchforward-lookingstatements.Copyright©2005RobertJ.ShillerPublishedbyPri
5、ncetonUniversityPress,41WilliamStreet,Princeton,NewJersey08540IntheUnitedKingdom:PrincetonUniversityPress,3MarketPlace,Woodstock,OxfordshireOX201SYAllRightsReservedLibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataShiller,RobertJ.Irrationalexuberance/RobertJ.Shiller.—2nded.p.cm.Inclu
6、desbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN0-691-12335-7(alk.paper)1.Stocks—UnitedStates.2.Stockexchanges—UnitedStates.3.Stocks—Prices—UnitedStates.4.Realproperty—Prices—UnitedStates.5.Risk.6.DowJonesindustrialaverage.I.Title.HG4910.S4572005332.63'222'0973—dc222004024789BritishLibr
7、aryCataloging-in-PublicationDataisavailableThisbookhasbeencomposedinAdobePalatinoandBerkeleyOldStyleBookandBlackbyPrincetonEditorialAssociates,Inc.,Scottsdale,ArizonaPrintedonacid-freepaper.pup.princeton.edu-1-PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica10987654321ToBenandDerek-2-ContentsFi
8、guresandTables..........................
