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1、AssessingtheRisksofClimateChange1PolicyBriefbytheScientificAdvisoryBoardoftheUNSecretary-General11November20161Forthispolicybrief,wedrawextensivelyonKingetal.,2015,TheWorldBank,2012andalsoonWEF,2016.KeyRecommendationsI.Considerthatina4oCorwarmerworld,theremightb
2、eabsolutelimitstoadaptation(e.g.,tosealevelchangeofseveralmetersoverthelongtime,tohightemperatureandhumidityexceedingthephysiologicallimittoheatstress,amongmanyothers)andimpactswoulddisproportionallyaffecttheworld'spoor.Evenona2oCworld,partsofthePlanetwillexperi
3、encehighdegreesofwarmingandrisksassociatedtothat.II.Therisksofclimatechangeshouldbeassessedinthesamewayasriskstopublichealth(ornationalsecurity):startfromanunderstandingofwhatwewishtoavoidandfocusonthebestavailableinformationtoidentifyworst-casescenariosinrelati
4、ontolongtermchangesandshorttermevents,andconsiderlowprobability,catastrophicimpactevents.III.Assessmentsofspecific,local,sectorial,nationalorglobalrisksofclimatechangeshouldberepeatedregularlyandconsistentlybasedonaconsistentsetofindicatorsofrisk;engageatthebegi
5、nningoftheprocessawiderangeofexperts(scientists,policymakers,politicalleaders,decisionmakers)andtrackhowexpertopinionchangesovertime;andshouldbereportedtothehighestdecisionmakingauthority.IV.TheParisAgreementglobalconsensustolimittemperatureriseto2oCandevenfurth
6、er"topursueeffortstolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5oCabovepre-industrial”istheonlyconsistentresponsetoriskreductiontopreserveasafeclimateforthePlanet'sfuture.Aglobalcarbonroadmapisneededaligningscience,technologyandpolicymeasuresandbehavioralchangestoreduceemis
7、sionsatthepaceneededforEarthsystemstability.1.IntroductionClimatechangecanbeframedasanissueofresilienceandriskmanagement.Policy-makersneedafullassessmentoftheriskthatclimatechangeposesinordertodecideontheprioritizationofclimatechangemitigationandadaptationstrate
8、gies.Themajorityofresearchintotheimpactsofclimatechangeexaminestheimpactsunderthelowerdegreesofwarming,suchasthe2oClimitintendedundertheUNFrameworkConventiononClimate
