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1、AGENDA•ChallengesofUrbanDevelopmentinDevelopingCountries/RegionsMythofUrbanRailRapid•PublicTransportation,RailTransitandTransitSysteminTransitorientedDevelopment(TOD)•RationaleofBusRapidTransitandTransitionEconomiesBRTOD張學孔台灣大學土木系教授•ConcludingRemarksS.K.JasonCHANG,Ph.D.Professor,Na

2、tionalTaiwanUniversityskchang@ntu.edu.twIssuesinUrbanDevelopmentandTransportationSystemsFurtherChallenges更大挑戰òCongestion擁擠•Duringnexttwodecades,theworld’sòAirPollution空氣污染populationwillincreaseby2billions,andòNoise噪音95%ofthemwillbelivingindevelopingandòEnergy能源消耗undevelopedregions.

3、人口增長òSafety/Security安全•UrbanizationwillbringmillionsofpeopleintocitiesandhowtomeettheirmobilityòHealth公共健康demandsisachallenge.城市化•NeedsforMobilityandMotorization.行動力、機動化需求1TransportationSolutions?Highway-orientedDevelopment??Car-orientedDevelopment??Highway-orientedDevelopment??小汽車

4、/公路為導向之發展政策??Car-orientedDevelopment??NO!!這是後果小汽車/公路為導向之發展政策??絕對不可行!!ObviouslyNO!!!GrowingOilDependenceandEnergySecurity•By2020,ChinawillimportOilUseinChina80%ofitsoildemand12)dbm10(yadr8epsler6rabn4oilliM2019992020Source:IEA2GrowingCarCulture??AnotherformofEquity?Travelbehaviorisi

5、nfluencedbycarculture…andHarmony?Thereisnoshowgirl/boyforpublictransport!Why?另一種「公平」?「和諧」?-小汽車文化影響旅運行為?Nomorelicense,-為什麼沒有公共運輸PLEASE!!帥哥美女??不要再發牌照了!!享受您的新車cn.autos.yahoo.comUseofautomobilesisOKforEffectsofPollutiononPublicRecreationandinOff-peakPeriodHealth空氣污染對健康/生產力的影響合理使用小汽車是可以

6、接受178,000Prematuredeaths早夭InTokyo,72%6,779,000tripsarePublicHospitalized&ER2.5%ofGDPTransportduring急診數量peakhours$840mi/yrcomparedwith4,537,000anaverageofOutpatient活動受限天數41%PT.346,000Labordayloss/呼吸系統疾病住院病例76,869,000RespiratoryillnessandAsthmaattack哮喘發作何支氣管炎Source:Harvard/EnergyFoun

7、dation3CO2TrendsinEUOurCitiesFacean交通部門對環境的影響•CO2EmissionsfromInternationalCompetitionCOemissiontrendsper2Transportationareexpectedtosector城市競爭力也必須考量risefast.140TOTAL10%ofShanghai’sGDPislostdueto•“Ifpresenttrendscontinue,130industrieindustytrafficcongestion.transportationwillbethem

8、ain120tertiairetertiary--A