客户资产分析与管理研究

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1、天津大学博士学位论文客户资产分析与管理研究姓名：马少辉申请学位级别：博士专业：信息管理与信息系统指导教师：刘金兰20070501ABSTRACTFormanyfinns，customersaretheirmostvaluabIeassets．Thisparticularviewhastriggeredimportantresea沱hstreamssuchasdirectmarketing，servicequality'relationshipmarketing，anddatabasemarketing．Thecustomerequityliteratureappe

2、arsasanefrorttointegrate，complementandinnovatefrompreviousresearchstre锄s．BasedontheextensiVereViewofcustomerequi够researchesappearedinrecentyearS，theobjectiVeofthisdissertationist0studytheapproachesforcustomerlifetimeValue(CLⅣ)andcustomerequit)r(CE)evaluation，optimizationandmanagement，

3、themaincontentsofthedissertationareasfollows：(1)BaseonthePareto／NBDmodel，Imakeanempiricalstudytoanalyzeandpredictcustomerrepeatbuyingbehaviorunderanon．contractualsetting．IalsoproposeanMCMCapproachforsolvingtheParet0／NBDmodel，whichmakesitfeasibletoweakenanyoneoftheassumptionsthePareto，

4、NBDbased．Further，IproposethreeextensionstothePareto／NBDmodelandderivecorrespondingformulas．Inordertocomparethepredictingabili哆ofthemodels，themodelsareappliedintoarealdirectmarketingdataset．(2)ImakeanextentiVereViewofVariousresearcharticlesthathaveappearedinthemarketingliteraturedealin

5、gwithCLVorCEevaluation．Itconcludesthebasicprocesstomeasurec【Mandidentifjesthreebasict)，pesofvaluingmodels．IalsodiscusstheappmachtocalculateCLⅣbasedonPareto／NBD，theapproachtoscoreandselectcustomersaccordingtotheirdistributionofCLVbasedonutili锣theory，andthe印proachtomeasurethepotentialcu

6、stomerequityoftIlecompany'andmakeacasestudytoshowhowtoapplytheseapproachesinthereal、vorld．(3)ThedissertationrcviewsvariousapproachesonCLVoptimization．Afbranalyzedtheshortcomingsfacingoncurrentresearches，IsuggestusingthepartiallyobservableMarkoVdecisionprocess(POMDP)todescribethedyn锄iC

7、developmentofcustomerrelationship，andproposeacustomerretention．defectiontwostatesmodelandacustomerrelationshipmulti-statesmodelforCLVoptimization．Inbothmodels，CL1VisregardedasanendogenVariable，bymaximizingtheCLVthemodelscangettheoptimizedpoliciesforcustomerrelationshipmanagement．(4)Ia

8、nalyz