现代钢铁企业全面风险管理理论与实证研究

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1、天津大学博士学位论文现代钢铁企业全面风险管理理论与实证研究姓名：运怀立申请学位级别：博士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：唐万生20070501AbstractEnterprIses’rIskhasbeenconcemedmoreandmore，withtheeconomyglobalizationandinf．onllationization，especiallyaRerwehaveenteredthe、v‘I’O．WiththedeVelopmentofourSocialistmarketeconomy，theoperatingenVironmentforourente叩ri

2、sesgetsmoreandmorecomplicatedandtheirrisksacceJerate．JnordertodeVelopinthecompetition，theente叩risesmustknowclearlyabouttheirrisks，f．oundthewell-bala—cedrisksmanagementsystem，takethee仃’ectiVepreVentivemeasuresandminimizethelossmadebythe“sks．Thisdissertationhasitsoriginofthequestionf'orstudy‘

3、‘Managementdecision-makingsupponsysteminJinanSteelGroup”．Basedontheanalysisf．ortheproblemsexistingintherisksmanagementintheSteeIgroup，thedissenationmakesadeepstudyonthediscrimination，assessment，wamingandcontroIlingoftheGroup’srisks，andalsoputsforwardtothereasonablesuggestionsandcountemeasur

4、esforhowtomanagetheoVeralIrisksinsteelente叩rises．Themajorcontentsaredescribedasf．oIlows：FirstIy，theriskmanagementhasfourphases：r．skdiscrimination，assessment，wamingandcontrolling，bythetheo叫ofriskmanagement．Thefomertwophasesarethebasisoftheriskmanagement．Thedissertationproposes3-dimensionalfu

5、zzymeasuremodelbyanalyzingthemechanismandcharacteristicsoftheovemllrisksdiscriminationinsteelenterprises．Secondly，thedissertationproposesanew向zzy白ulttreeanaIysis(FTA)methodbyintroducingfbzzyVariablesintothetraditionalFTA．ThenthemethodisappJiedtotheoVerallrisksanalysisofente叩riSesforsolVingt

6、heprobJemswithuncertajnties．ThirdIy，thedissenationproVidestheinspectionways卸dwamingmechanismtomonitordynamiclytheoVerallrisksanalysisofente叩rises．Funhe咖ore，byanalyzingthemechanismoftheoVerallriskswaminginsteelente叩rises，tlledissertationproposesanal”ichierarchyprocessbasedon如zzysimulationtod

7、etemlinethew锄inggrades，andproVidesthecontrollingmeasuresfordi保：rentkindsofrisks．Finally，bycitingJinanSteelGroup，thedissertationputsf．0rwardtotheprocessandthecounte珊easuresoftheoVerallriskmanagementsinthesteelenterprises，whichismeaningfultoimproVetherisks