水产品价格预测支持系统研究

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1、中国农业大学博士学位论文水产品价格预测支持系统研究姓名：张小栓申请学位级别：博士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：傅泽田20030601AbstractThegovernment．scientificresearchorganizationandenterprisealwaysfocusonaquaticproductsprice，becausewhichplayanimportantroleindevelopmentoffisheryeconomicandinternationaltradeinChinaThatpredictingtheaquaticp

2、roductspriceandoverseeingitschangenotonlycanprovidesupportforenterprisedecision-making，andalsoallocateaquacultureresourcemoreeffeclivelyandweakenitsfluctuation．Soweputforwardtostudyonaforecastingsupportsystemforaquaticproductsprice，whichcanprovideinformationserviceforaquaticprod

3、uctsmarketersWehadfulfilledthreeas['ectsoftheresearch．1)Wehadrecognizedthedomainproblemofaquaticproductspriceforecastingsupportsystemandbuilttheconceptualmodelandformalismarchitecture，whichconsistof8kindsofelements，14kindsofdefinitionand5kindsoftheoremanddescribethedomainproblem

4、．Buildingthemodelandarchitectureisusefultoprovidethesupportfordesignthesystemprototypeandpromotethereuseofsystem2)Wehaddefinedthepredictmodelforaquaticproductspricetobea5-elements-set，whichisthesetofinputandoutput，thecondition，thestructureandalgorithm，anddividedtheprocedureforbu

5、ildingtheforecastingmodelinto3stagesincluding6steps．Based011thepmeedure，wehadconstructedthecompositionmodeloftimeseriesandcasualmodelforpredictingaquaticproductsprice．3)Wehadconstructedthestructureofcasualmodelviathefunctionofinversedemandandsupply．Butbecauseofshortageofempirica

6、linformation，wehadcorrectedthestructuredviathetheoryofpricetransmitandpriceexception．Thenweadoptedthecointegrationanderrorcorrectionmodelasthealgorithmofthemodel，whichCanresolvethelineassociationinindependentvariablefrominversedemandorsupplymodelwithoutlosingthevariable．4)Weputf

7、orwardandprovedthattheoutputstructurealsoisoneofthecausesresultinginthepricefluctuation．ThenWeanalyzedtherelationbetweenoutputstructureandoutputgrowthviaMooreindex．Itispmvedthattherelationispositiveassociation．Buttheresultfromcointegrationshowthestructureoffreshwatercatchcan’tre

8、sultinthepricefluctuation5)Wehadbuildalloftheem