基于现代控制理论的SARS疫情预测

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1、大连理工大学硕士学位论文ThePredictionofSARSEpidemicBasedonModemControlTheoryAbstractExploringepidemicspreadingandpredictingitsdevelopmenttrendareimportantaspectsforepidemicstudy，andtheyarethebasisofcontrolpolicyadoptedbythegovernmentandmedicaldepartment．SeverAcuteRespirator

2、ySyndrome(SARS)，whichemergedin2003spreadedabroadthirty-towcountriesintheworld．AlthoughSAPSdon’tprevailnow,toresearchscientificandexactpredictionmethodisthebasisofpreventingotherepidemicfromprevailing．ManymathematicsmodelshavebeensetuDtoresearchthespreadofSAKSsin

3、ceSARSbrokeout．Sofar．themethodsbasedonmodelsarenotscientifieprediction．neYareonlysimulationsofnumberswithcomputer．WhatthispaperresearchiSareailyscientificpredictionmethodbasedonmodemcontroltheory．Ithasstrongacademicfoundation，andmakestheresultmoreexact．Firstly．a

4、differentialequationmodelwithtimedelayiSsetupbasedonthecharacteristicofSARS．BasedontraditionaiSIRmodel．anewgroupnamedfreeinfoctivepeopleiSaddedtodifferentialequation．Freeinfectivepeoplearetheoriginoftheepidemic，SOcontrollingthemcanpreventthetransmissionofSARS．Si

5、mulationresultprovesthismodelisreasonableThenakindoffunctionalobserver谢thinternaldelayisdesignedtopredictepidemic，andthenecessaryandsufficientconditionfortheexistenceofthefunctionalobserverisgiven，too．Thenthedesignoftheunknownmatricesofthefunctionalobserveriscon

6、vertedtothedesignofaparametermatrixusingthetheoryofgeneralizedinverse．Meanwhile，asufficientconditionforthetime-delayindependentstabilityofthefunctionalobserveriSderivedusingthelinearmatrixinequalitytechnique．TopredicttheepidemicofSARSonline，abasalKalmanFilterisd

7、esigned．AndthestabilityoftheFilteriSanalyzedbasedonthestabilitycriterion．TheFilteriSprovedsteady．nesiredatedresultagreeswellwiththereportedepidemicdata，whichshowsthatthetowmethodshavehi曲erprecision．TheyarenewmethodsforSARSepidemicprediction．KeyWords：SeverAcuteRe

8、spiratorySyndrome(SARS)；DifferentialEquationModel；FunctionalObserver；KaimanFilter；LMI独创性说明作者郑重声明：本硕士学位论文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究工作及取得研究成果。尽我所知，除了文中特别加以标注和致谢的地方外，论文中不包含其他人已经发表或