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ID:36556136
大小:2.69 MB
页数:63页
时间:2019-05-12
《基于附随扩散模型的移动增值业务扩散的实证研究》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、西南交通大学硕士学位论文基于附随扩散模型的移动增值业务扩散的实证研究姓名:霍娟申请学位级别:硕士专业:技术经济及管理指导教师:张震宇20081101西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文第工I页ABSTRACTInrecentyears,withthedevelopmentofcomputers,communications,s&tware,microelectronics,andothertechnologies,themobilecommunicationsindustrytakesplacewith.thegreatchanges
2、.Theglobalspreadofthird-generationmobilecommunicationsystemnotonlymakesthecapacityenhancementofmobilecommunicationsnetwork,butalsopromotesavarietyofnewvalue—addedservicescomeintobeingatthesametime.Withthegreatwealthofvalue—addedservices,itisgettingcloserelationshipsw
3、ithpeople’Swork,life,entertainmentandothernecessities.Particularlyinrecentyears,withthecooperationandparticipationwith”SuperGirls”and”very6+l”and”Beijing2008OlympicGames”;toagreatextent,itpromotedthedevelopmentofmobilevalue-addedservices.Therefore,themobilevalue—adde
4、dservicehasagreatpotentialformarket.HowCanaccuratelypredictthefutureofmobilevalue-addedbusinessandhowtohelpoperatorstodevelopappropriatebusinessstrategyhasbecomethemostfocusoftheenterprises.Onthebriefreviewandbasisofthespreadtheory,inthisarticleImakeasystematicandcom
5、prehensiveanalysisoftechnicalinnovationtheoriesandmodels,whichwillbethefoundationofexamplesinthefollowingpans.BasedontheBassmodel,andwiththecombinationofsubjects,thatisfeaturedbyChina’Scontingentofmobilevalue-addedservice,withthespreadtheorybasedonPeterson,Mahajanand
6、Joelspreadtheories,andwiththetheoryofputtingtheoryintopractice,thearticlemakestheproveresearchonthemobileadd-valueservicesofChina’Stelecomindustry.TheactualsituationofChina'smobilevalue-addedoperationsintheempiricalstudies,someoftheevidenceadoptedbytheauthoritiesrele
7、asedChina’Smobilephoneusersfrom1990to2007,andChina'smobilevalue—addedbusiness西南交通大学硕士研究生学位论文第1II页customersfrom2000to2007,thechoiceofthreemodelsBassmodel,LogisticmodelandContingentmodelwerestudied,andchoosethefightestimation,thatis,non-linearleastsquares,thethreeparam
8、etersofthemodelestimates,aswellastheeffectoffittingforthefutureofmobilevalue-addedservicesmarkettrends.Theresultswerecomparedandana
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