基于实物期权的技术创新投融资交互关系研究

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1、电子科技大学博士学位论文基于实物期权的技术创新投融资交互关系研究姓名：李强申请学位级别：博士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：曾勇20070601摘要减轻“过度投资”。最后，考虑内部现金流随机波动和内外部融资差异导致投资资金受限的可能，考察决定企业内外部融资能力的基础变量对技术创新投资决策和投资策略选择的影响。研究结果表明：投资资金受限会激励企业尽早投资；而决定外部融资能力的基础变量对投资决策影响作用的结论可以从理论上解释现实中企业的某些投资行为和关于这些投资行为的实证结果。此外，市场不确定性越高，企业越倾向于选择等待投资策略；相反，技术不确定越高，企业越倾向于

2、选择立即投资策略。关键词：实物期权，技术创新，投融资交互关系，市场不确定性，技术不确定性ⅡABSTRACTTechnologyinnovationsareimportantmotiveforccsofpromotingthedevelopmentofinternationaleconomy,andthemainmeansbywhich在l'mssurviveanddevelop．Notably，bomthemarkctdemandofanewtechnologyandtheenvironmentoffutureinnovationsareBncel$ain．

3、andtheseuncertaintiesrevealstepbystep1】l，itlltheadvanceoftimeandthedecisionsmadebyfirms,whichwillendowfirmswithdecisionflexibilities．However,besidesthesetwokindsofuncertainties，theimperfectfeaturesincapitalmarkets，such部tax，bankruptcycostandfinancingcost,theconflictsamongstockholder

4、s．andthe硒vmme砸cinformationb武we∞thefinnsandtheouterinvestors，ctc，willalsohavecriticaleffects011filVfllS’decisionsofinvestingintechnologicalinnovations．AssumingthattheoutputpriceoftheexistingtechnologyfollowsageometricBrownianmotionandthevalueoftheexistingtechnologydropsforapercentag

5、eatthePoissonjumparrivalofafutureinnovation,thisdissertationconsiderstheimperfectfeaturesincapitalmarketsanddevelopstherealoptionsmodelsofinvestmentandfinancingdecisionsoftechnologyinnovations．Specially,weexaminediffercntimpactsofthemarkctandthetechnologicaluncertaintiesontheintera

6、ctionsofinvestmentandfinancingdecisions．Themaincontentsandresultsofthisdissertationarefollowing．Firstly,consideringtheinterest-tax·shieldofdebtandthepossibilityofbankruptcy,wedevelopasimplerealoptionmodelofinvestmentandfinancingdecisions．Afterinvestigatingtheimpactsofuncertaintieso

7、ntheinvestmentthreshold,thebankruptcytriggerandtheoptimallevdofdebt,Wefindthatboththemarketuncertaintyandthetechnologicaluncertaintywilldelaytheadoptionoftheexistingtechnology．However,theyaffectthebankruptcydecisionandtheoptimallevelofdebtiIloppositedirections．Moreover,thecapabilit

8、yofbearingdebtandtheflexib