基于系统动力学的长江三角洲港口群物流系统协调发展研究

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1、上海海事大学硕士学位论文基于系统动力学的长江三角洲港口群物流系统协调发展研究姓名：崔建新申请学位级别：硕士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：汪传旭20060701AstudyofYangtzeriverdeltaportgrouplogisticssystembasedonsystemdynamicsdevelopingincorrespondInordertoanalyseportcompetitionandcooperationInYangtzeRiverDelta。definitudeeachportfunction．Optimizetheoons

2、olidationanddispersingstructure(abbreviatedasCDS)，speedupregionallogisticsdeveloping，inthispaper，theauthorinducttheconceptionofregionalportgrouplogisticssystemandbandtogethertheresearchonportgroupandregionallogisticssystem．Becausethetransportsystemisdynamic，complicated，reactive

3、，long—termandperiodic，itissuitablefortheapplicationofsystemdynamics．Whenitconcernstheproblemofportgrouplogisticsystemforparticular,whichhasagreatnumberoffactors，acomplexmakeupanddramaticvariations，systemdynamicscandescribe，simulateandforecast，thereforecarryouteffectiveanalysisa

4、ndresearchontheformationofportgrouplogisticsystem，factors，tendenciesandvariationfeatures．ByutilizingVensimPLE，thespecialsoftwareofsystemdynamicsandbyestablishingasystemdynamicsmodel．theresearchmadeeffortstofindthedynamicrelationsbetweenvariousfactors．Throughsimulation，theconclu

5、sionsthatpolicymakerscareabeuthavebeendrawnandinacertaintimepenod，theseconclusionswillserveasanimportantsupportofthepolicymaking．Thisreseamhcompletedmainlythefollowingtasks：Analyzedthechiefoutsidefactorsandbasicinsidemakeupelementsofthesystem；establishedthesystematicdynamicsmod

6、el．andemployedthemodeltocarryouthistoricalsimulationanddevelopingforecast：withtheresultsofthemodelandtheactualconditionofthevariationofthesystem．cornprehensivelyanalyzedthefornlationandvariationmechanism．1．Inaccordancewiththesimulationresults．someconclusionsweredrawn：InYangtzeR

7、iverDelta，shanghaishouldplayacontainerhingeportandprefertoexpandinternationaltransferringoperation，meanwhileningboshould，openuphinterlandwithanereonstamplebulkcargoandinnertrade．2．DOourbeSttoOptimizetheCDS．improvethewatercarriageproportion．3．ChooseaportalongChangjiangriverasthe

8、maincloseoceantransferringport，toconformitythecloseoce