决策偏误认知控制模型研究及其应用

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1、华中科技大学博士学位论文决策偏误认知控制模型研究及其应用姓名：周维申请学位级别：博士专业：控制理论与控制工程指导教师：陈绵云;王明哲20051225无偏模式。在AHP的决策框架下，首次就序等价类的概念，构造了基于序等价类概念的二叉树序控制模式来保证决策判断的合理化执行。本文综合了各种系统工程和认知系统过程方法，从解决决策思维过程中各个阶段可能发生的各种认知偏差入手，提出建立面向现实工程应用的保序控制策略、系统认知控制模型和决策环境设计思想。将该框架的思想和理论应用于具体实践的分析和设计过程，给出了相应的实现方案，并且开发出了SMARTCHOICE决策支持系统软件，支持决

2、策者在考虑因素繁多的复杂的环境下快速地作出正确决策和判断。关键词：判断偏差，前景理论，层次分析法，偏差控制模型，决策支持系统IIAbstractFormanydecades,researchinjudgmentanddecisionmakinghasexaminedjudgmentviolationsofrationalchoicetheoryandexpectedutilitytheory.Intheseframeworks,rationalityisexpressedasasinglecorrectdecisionsharedbyexperimentersandsu

3、bjectsthatsatisfyinternalcoherencewithinasetofpreferencesandbeliefs.Moreandmoreresearchhasprovedthatexpectedutilitytheorycannotbeworkedinmanyproblems.Outsideofpsychology,socialscientistsarenowdebatingtheneedtomodifyrationalchoicetheorywithbehavioralassumptions.Withinpsychology,researcher

4、saredebatingassumptionsabouterrorsformanydifferentdefinitionsofrationality.Alternativeframeworksarebeingproposed.Theseframeworksviewdecisionsandjudgmentsasmorereasonableandadaptivethanpreviouslythought.Suchasprospecttheory,whichemployscumulativeratherthanseparabledecisionweightsandextend

5、sthetheoryinseveralrespects.Italsoallowsnonlinearpreferencewhichcanbeappliedtovariousfieldsandprovideviablesolutionstoextremelycomplexproblems.Thisdissertationpresentsrecentresearchonjudgmentanddecisionmakingerrorsfromtraditionalandalternativeframeworks,analyzestheerrorsthatexistinthejud

6、gmentanddecisionmaking.Wealsoprovideacommoncognitivecontrolmodelforjudgments.However,mostofthedecisionandjudgmenttheoriesarebasedonexpectedutilities,whenencountersthesituationsthatdonotmeettherequirementsoftheexpectedutilitytheory,mostofthemwillnotbeworked.TheAnalyticHierarchyProcess(AHP

7、)methodisoneofthem,whichwasproposedbyAmericanmathematician,ThomasL.Saaty.ThereverseproblemthatexitsinAHPhasbeendiscussedforover20years,almostallthediscussionofthePRproblemswerebasedonmathematics.Inthisdissertation,wediscussedtheerrorcontrolfromtheviewofcognitivetheory,and