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1、南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文短期区域飞行流量预测问题研究姓名：葛柏君申请学位级别：硕士专业：安全技术及工程指导教师：胡明华20080101短期区域飞行流量预测问题研究AbstractRecently,thesafetyofairtransportationhasbeenthekeypartoftheglobalaviation.Withthedevelopmentofairtrafficindustryandtheincreasingtrafficflow,conflictsbetweenflightsarerisingandtheriskinop
2、erationofairtrafficsystemfacilitiesisincreasingaswell.Thereisanurgentneedtostrengthenthepowerofmanagementtoensurethesafetytechnically.Thispaperstartswithapredictionandanoperation.Firstofall,itanalyzestrafficconditionsinareaairspace,studiesthemethodologyinairtrafficflowpredicti
3、on,andproposesasolvingmethodusingtrajectorypredictiontoevaluatetheflowinareaairspace,withrespecttotheshort-termairtrafficprediction.Secondly,thispaperpresentsaninteractingmultiplemodel(IMM)algorithmonthebasisofthemethodologyandexperiments,andthenintroducesamodifiedversion,ther
4、esidual-meaninteractingmultiplemodel(RMIMM)algorithm.Meanwhile,theRMIMMalgorithmcombinedwithintentpredictionshowsthepredictionmethodbasedonaircraftintentsandgivesitsfuturedevelopment.Thirdly,basedonthetrajectoryprediction,itbuildsashort-termairtrafficflowpredictionmodelwhichca
5、nbedividedintofixes,routesandsectors.Andthismodelwiththecombinationoftheformermodelwhichusesthegardenlinepredictionconstructstheoverallairtrafficflowmodel,whichmodifiestheerrorintheformersystem.Atlast,itdesignstheshort-termareaflowpredictionsystemtoprovideairtrafficflowsforair
6、trafficcontrollers,statisticsforconflictdetection,andsuggestionsforairtrafficdecision-makers.Keywords:AirTrafficManagement,AirTrafficFlowPrediction,TrajectoryPrediction,IMMAlgorithm,IntentPredictionII南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文图表目录图2.1空域结构图..................................................
7、................................................................5图2.2短期区域流量统计预测结构关系图...................................................................11图3.1航迹预测与其它系统的关系图............................................................................13图3.2坐标投影图....................
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