中国保险业整体性风险的分析与管理

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8、l⋯l：!lI㈣㈣Y1532015博士学位论文中国保险业整体性风险的分析与管理AnalysisandManagementfortheMainRisksofChina’SInsuranceSector学科专业：管理科学与工程研究生：王少群指导教师：王春峰教授天津大学管理学院二oo八年八月ABSTRACTWorldBankandInternationalMonetaryFunddefinetheFinancialStabilityasanenvironmentthatpreve

9、ntsalargenumberoffinancialinstitutionsfrombecominginsolventandconditionsthatwouldavoidsignificantdisruptionstotheprovisionofkeyfinancialservices．Insuranceindustryplaysanimportantroleineconomy．Itwillmakeagreatdamagetotheeconomyifalargenumberofinsurancecompanies

10、gointobankruptcy．Thereisonlyalittleliteratureabouthowtopreventlotsofinsolvenciesofinsurancecompanies．Foreignstudiesfocusmuchondepictingtheexactcaseofinsurer’Sfailure．Chineseinsuranceindustryisintheprimarystageandthereisnoinsolvencytillnow．FewChinesescholarsset

11、footinthistopic．ThisthesisdefinestheriskswhichcouldleadmanyfailuresofinsurersasMainRisksofInsuranceSector(MRIS)，studiestheMRISinChineseinsurancesectorandgivessomeadvicetomanagethem．Themaincontentsandconclusionsareasfollows：1．FindingthatMRISincludeUnder-pricing

12、Risk，CatastropheRisk,InvestmentRisk，andSurrenderRiskbecauseofpolicy—holders’fearsthroughcasestudy．2．Usinglossratioastheproxyvariableofinsurancepriceandweightedleastsquares(WLS)approach，presentssomeempiricaltestsoftherelationshipbetweenthepremiumsincomeandbotht

13、helossratioandtheexpenseratioofthenon．1ifeinsurancecompaniesinChina，JapanandUnitedStates．Thethesisfoundpricecompetitioncouldbringmorepremiumsbutitreducedthecompanies，profitsinChina，whilethedecreaseofexpenseratiocouldbringmorepremiumsandprofitsatthesametime．Hen

14、ce，themeasurestodecreaseexpenseratioandlimitexcesspricecompetitionshouldbeadopted．Thethesisalsoestimatestheapplicabilityofthemeasurestocontroltheexcesspricecompetition．3．Designingamodeltoprovethelifeinsurancecompanieswouldsetahighpre-setinterestratetoattractpr

15、emiumsandadopthighriskinvestmentstrategywithoutpre—setinterestcontr01．4．Applyingtheeconometricmethodtogiveanempiricaltestoftheapplicabilityofthepre-setinterestcontrolpolicy．5．Findi