高盛中国石油估价模型(excel)

高盛中国石油估价模型(excel)

ID:36290249

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页数:125页

时间:2019-05-08

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1、Rmbdeval2002E2002EChange(%)Rmb/USD83>.309.1310IncomefromOperations(EBIT)Exploration&Production46,831.85553,180.11313.555Refining&Marketing3,860.8715,917.71653.274Chemicals4,034.9114,556.86412.936Naturalgas-66.141-66.1410Other-2,900-2,9000Total51,761.49760,688.55217.247Finan

2、cingcostsNetexchangegain/(loss)0—-3,387.520—Interestincome186.26162.5920—Interestexpense-4,611.79-4,796.2624Total-4,425.531-8,021.1981.248Incomefromequityaffiliates2002000—Pretaxincome47,535.96652,867.36211.215Incometaxes-15,686.869-18,512.07418.01Incomebeforeminorityinterests31,84

3、9.09734,355.2887.869(Income)/lossapplicabletominorityinterests-20-200—NetIncome31,829.09734,335.2887.874Cashflow75,764.47181,277.8617.277EBITDA83,454.49792,381.55210.697EBIDA78,729.57773,869.478-6.173PaulD.Bernard:from2000onwardsroughlyflat@2075,withdifferencebeingmadeupbydepreciat

4、ion.shumin:assuming40%foreigndebt,60%rmbdebtearningsbreak-up1999E2000Echange2001Echange2002Echange2003Echange2004EchangePetroChinaEBIT41,253.43659,947.89618,694.46148,389.882-11,558.01451,761.4973,371.61552,840.3211,078.82452,185.587-654.734Total17,758.763-11,543.1693,430.838883.45

5、6-785.682Difference935.698-14.845-59.223195.368130.948E&P48,459.02860,837.24312,378.21545,785.785-15,051.45946,831.8551,046.07147,150.723318.86846,779.157-371.567VolumeCrude(mbbl)743.242730.681-12.561703.07-27.611694.078-8.993684.491-9.587678.667-5.824NaturalGas(bcf)39945960544

6、8568113781513488368Total(mBOE)809.742807.181-2.561793.737-13.444807.57813.841820.32412.747825.8345.51Earningsimpact-815.962-2,893.661970.298843.988298.596PriceCrude16.74718.51.75316-2.5160160160NaturalGas1.8671.9080.041.904-0.0041.90401.899-0.0041.8990Earningsimpact10,784.943-14,60

7、7.8620-28.6970CostsLifting-4.787-4.7030.084-4.3810.322-4.1560.225-4.0390.116-4.0090.031DD&A-2.019-2.175-0.156-2.296-0.121-2.375-0.079-2.444-0.069-2.498-0.054Others-2.276-1.8730.403-1.850.023-1.8390.011-1.8290.01-1.848-0.019Totalunitcost-9.082-8.7510.331-8.5270.224-8.370.157-8.3

8、130.057-8.355-0.042Earning

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