china debates

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1、ChinaDebates:IsWarwithU.S.Inevitable?ChinawondersifitcanavoidtheThucydidesTrap.LyleJ.GoldsteinMarch3,2015TweetinShare8IthasbecomequitecommontousehistoricalanalogiestodescribethecomplexSino-Americanrelationship.AtthecentenaryoftheFirstWorldWar,thecomparisonbetweenChina’sriseandth

2、atofWilhelmineGermanyhasbeenwidelymade.However,apath-breaking2012opinionpiecebyHarvardUniversity’sGrahamAllisonreachedbacktoAncientGreecetodescribethestrategicdilemmasfacingthemostimportantbilateralrelationshipinthe21stcentury.Pointingtowhatisperhapsthemostimportantsentenceinthe

3、entireWesterncannononinternationalrelations,AllisoninvitedstrategistsandanalystsonbothsidesofthePacifictorecallthat“itwastheriseofAthensandthefearthatthisinspiredinSpartathatmadewarinevitable.”Moreover,Allisonsupplieddisturbingevidenceofthefrequencyofwarbetweenarisingandestablis

4、hedpower,asobservedbyThucydidesintheHistoryofthePeloponnesianWar.AccordingtoAllison,“in11of15casessince1500wherearisingpoweremergedtochallengearulingpower,waroccurred.”WhileAllison’sreferencetothePeloponnesianWarseemstohavehadsomeimpactontherelevantdebatesinWashington,therehasbe

5、enlittleexplorationoftheidea’simpactinBeijing.Yet,the“ThucydidesTrap”concepthasindeedbeendiscussedbyChina’stopforeignpolicydecision-makers.InordertobetterunderstandChineseperspectivesrelatedto“ThucydidesTrap,”thiseditionoftheDragonEyeserieswillexploreaforumdedicatedtothatthemein

6、theofficialChinesemilitaryjournal军事历史[MilitaryHistory]thatwaspublishedbytheprestigiousChineseAcademyofMilitarySciences(AMS)in2014.(Recommended: Revealed:WhyChinaWouldLoseaWaragainstAmerica)Thejournal’sfirstreflectiononThucydides,whichwascritical,wasbythePeople’sLiberationArmy(PL

7、A)SeniorColonelZhouXiaoning,aresearcherspecializinginforeignmilitaryhistoryatAMS.WhileSeniorColonelZhouconcededthatThucydides’comparisonbetweenancientGreekcity-statesandmodernnation-stateswas“worthdiscussing,”hequiteemphaticallyrejectedAllison’sanalogy:“ChinaisnotAthensandtheUni

8、tedStatesisnotSparta.Oneshouldnottakehistoryand