宝石策略手册：近期价格压力和结构性阻力

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1、ABGlobalResearch8February2019TheDiamondsPlaybookEquitiesGlobalBasicMaterialsDanielMajorAnalystdaniel.major@ubs.com+44-20-75683472MylesAllsopAnalystmyles.allsop@ubs.com+44-20-75681693HugoBraveryAnalysthugo.bravery@ubs.com+44-20-75687202JaySoleAnalystjay.

2、sole@ubs.com+1-212-7133559HelenBrand,CFAAnalysthelen.brand@ubs.com+44-20-75684395JulieZhuang,CFAAnalystjulie.zhuang@ubs.com+44-20-75671888UBSEvidenceLabinside:Near-termpricepressureandstructuralheadwindsNotjustanotherdiamondprimer–differentiatedanalysis

3、/viewsinthisreportWearemorecautiousvsconsensusondiamondsbecause:1)webelievediamondjewellerydemandgrowthwilllaggloballuxuryspendanddiamondswillnot'growinlinewithGDP';2)UBSEvidenceLabsurveyssupportourviewthatsyntheticdiamondsarelikelytogainsufficientmarke

4、tsharetonegativelyimpactnaturaldiamonddemandgrowth;3)diamondminesupplyissettodeclinebutwebelievethedisruptiveimpactisoverstated.WeinitiateonAlrosawithaSell(Link)anddowngradeAnglotoSell(Link).Outlook–Solidlong-termfundamentals,butheadwindslimitpriceupsid

5、eInourview,thefundamentaloutlookfordiamondsissolidandourbasecaseisformodestpriceupsideinroughdiamondpricesmediumterm.But,nearterm,wedonotseeanyclearpositivecatalysts.JewellerydemandinUSA/Chinaappearslacklustre,themarketforlower-qualitystonesisoversuppli

6、ed,andlow-qualityroughinventorybuiltin2H18islikelytore-enterthemarketwhendemandrecovers,cappingupsideinbenchmarkpricesandnegativelyimpactingpricerealisationsforAlrosaandDeBeers.Willtheglobaldiamondjewellerymarketgrowin-linewithGDP?UBSEvidenceLabstudiesh

7、ighlightdiamondjewellerywillremainakeycategorywithinLuxurybutwebelievedemandgrowth(<2%CAGR)islikelytocontinuetolagLuxuryspend(~4%CAGR),drivenbylowermarriagerates&relativeunderspendondiamondmarketing.Inourview,diamonddemandmaynotgrow'in-linewithGDP'asman

8、ybelieve.UBSEvidenceLabsurveysindicatethatnaturaldiamondsarelikelytoremainthecorecomponentofthejewellerymarketandwedonotbelievegrowthinsyntheticswillreducetotaldemandfornaturaldiamonds.But,inourview,themarketpotentiallyunderestim