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1、SolarGlassAnalystXiaoliYuyuxiaoli@xyzq.com.cnSAC:S0190518020003SFC:AXK331ContactYunjiChecheyunji@xyzq.com.cnSolarGlass:Theduopolycompetitionpatternhasbeenshaped,optimisticaboutthevolumeandpricein2019March2nd,2019Investmentpoints:In2019,thedomesticdemandofPVinstallationsisnotclear,butitisunlikelytos
2、eeasharpdecline.Theoverseasdemandisrecovering,anditisexpectedtoreachahighlevel.Sincethecurrentsubsidypolicyhasnotbeenissued,mostprojectscannotbecarriedoutinadvanceexceptsomepolicy-supportedresidentialsolarprojectsandprojectswerenotconnectedtothegridattheendoflastyear.Therefore,webelievethatthescaleo
3、fdomesticPVinstallationsin2019isunlikelytoexceedthosein2018.However,consideringthe3billionsubsidiescansupportatleast25GWinstallationcapacity,andthereexistshistoricalquotasof3-5GW,poverty-alleviationprojectsof1-2GWandgridparityprojectsofmorethan5GW,thetotalPVinstallationsareunlikelytofallsharply.Onov
4、erseasdemandside,itrecoverswithnewinstallationsof61GWin2018,a32.6%growthyear-on-year.Atthesametime,thescaleofnewsolarmarketsisrising.Weexpect16marketswithmorethan1GWinstallationin2019,suggestingPVdemandisnolongerdependentonafewlargemarkets.Overweight（Initiation）AccordingtoBloombergNEF’sforecast,inth
5、econservativecase,theglobalinstalledcapacityin2019,2020and2021wouldreach117GW,127GWand130GWrespectively.Intheneutralcase,itis125GW,137GWand141GW,whileintheoptimisticcase,itis133GW,146GWand152GW.Domesticsolarglassenterpriseshavebasicallyreplacedoverseasenterprisesthroughthedevelopmentinthelasttenyear
6、s.Since2006,thedomesticphotovoltaicglasshasreplacedtheimports.After2013,domesticphotovoltaicglassproductioncapacityhastakenupmorethan70%oftheglobaltotalcapacitywiththeincreaseofcapacityconcentration.Accordingtocalculation,thetopfivesolarglassproducersaccountedforabout63%oftheglobalsolarglassproducti
7、oncapacityin2013,whichhasincreasedtoover75%attheendof2018.Webelievethatthefuturedevelopmenttrendofthephotovoltaicglassindustryisthatleadingcompanieswillcontinuetoexpandmarketshares.(1)Theduopolypatter
