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1、毕业论文（设计） 外文翻译外文原文Salesforecastsinclothingindustry:ThekeysuccessfactorofthesupplychainmanagementLikemanyothers,Textile–apparelcompanieshavetodealwithaverycompetitiveenvironmentandhavetomanageconsumerswhichbecomemoredemanding.Thus,tostaycompetitive,companiesrelyo
2、nsophisticatedinformationsystemsandlogisticskills,andespeciallyaccurateandreliableforecastingsystems.However,forecastershavetodealwithsomesingularconstraintsofthetextile–apparelmarketsuchasforinstancethevolatiledemand,thestrongseasonalityofsales,thewidenumberof
3、itemswithshortlifecycleorthelackofhistoricaldata.Torespondtotheseconstraints,companieshaveimplementedspecificforecastingsystemsoftensimplebutrobust.Afterthestudyofexistingpracticesintheclothingindustry,weproposedifferentforecastingmodelswhichperformmoreaccurate
4、andmorereliablesalesforecasts.Thesemodelsrelyonadvancedmethodssuchasfuzzylogic,neuralnetworksanddatamining.Inordertoevaluatethebenefitsofthesemethodsforthesupplychainandmoreespeciallyforthereductionofthebullwhipeffect,asimulationbasedonrealdataofsourcingandfore
5、castingprocessesisperformedandanalyzed.1.IntroductionInthewideareaofthetextile,threemarketsaregenerallydefined:apparel,hometextileandtechnicaltextile.Inthisarticle,weinvestigatetheapparelmarketwhichisthemoresignificantintermofvolumeandalsoveryspecific.Indeed,in
6、2006thetradeoftextileisestimatedat530billionDollarswith319billionDollarsfortheclothingindustry.Theclothingindustryincludesmanycompaniesfromthespinningtothedistributionwhicharerequiredtotransformthefiberintothefinalgarment(Fig.1).Thisleadstoaquitelongandcomplexp
7、rocesswithmanymanufacturingsteps.However,themainactorofthisnetworkisthedistributordownstreamoftheprocess.Itmakesordersfortheupstreamcompaniesandsuppliestheconsumerwiththeirproducts:itisthedriverofwholeflowsintheprocess.Thesedifferentstageswithquitelongandfluctu
8、atedmanufacturingtimesinvolveahighsensitivityofthesupplychaintothebullwhipeffect.Salesforecastsemergethenasthekeysuccessfactorofthesupplychainmanagement.However,thespecifici
