The New Financial Order.pdf

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1、Shiller.front12/30/024:01PMPageiTheNewFinancialOrderShiller.front12/30/024:01PMPageiiShiller.front12/30/024:01PMPageiiiTheNewFinancialOrderriskinthe21stcenturyRobertJ.ShillerPrincetonUniversityPress.Shiller.front12/30/024:01PMPageivCopy

2、right©2003byRobertJ.ShillerPublishedbyPrincetonUniversityPress41WilliamStreetPrinceton,NewJersey08540IntheUnitedKingdom:PrincetonUniversityPress3MarketPlaceWoodstock,OxfordshireOX201SYAllRightsReservedLibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataShiller

3、,RobertJ.Thenewfinancialorder:riskinthe21stcentury/RobertJ.Shiller.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN0-691-09172-2(alk.paper)1.Riskmanagement.2.Informationtechnology.I.Title.HD61.S552003368—dc212002042563BritishLibraryCataloging-in-Public

4、ationDataisavailableBookdesignbyDeanBornsteinThisbookhasbeencomposedinAdobeGalliardandFormatabyPrincetonEditorialAssociates,Inc.,Scottsdale,ArizonaPrintedonacid-freepaper.∞www.pupress.princeton.eduPrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica10987654321Shiller.front

5、12/30/024:01PMPagevIreturned,andsawunderthesun,thattheraceisnottotheswift,northebattletothestrong,neitheryetbreadtothewise,noryetrichestomenofunderstanding,noryetfavortomenofskill;buttimeandchancehappenethtothemall.—Ecclesiastes9:11Shiller.front12/30/024

6、:01PMPageviShiller.front12/30/024:01PMPageviiContentsPrefaceixAcknowledgmentsxiiiintroductionThePromiseofEconomicSecurity1PartOne:EconomicRisksinanAdvancingWorldoneWhattheWorldMightHaveLookedLikesince195021twoTheHiddenProblemofEconomicRisk32threeWhyNewTe

7、chnologyCreatesRisks46fourFortyThieves:TheManyKindsofEconomicRisks58PartTwo:HowScienceandTechnologyCreateNewOpportunitiesinFinancefiveNewInformationTechnologyAppliedtoRiskManagement69sixTheScienceofPsychologyAppliedtoRiskManagement82sevenTheNatureofInven

8、tioninFinance99PartThree:SixIdeasforaNewFinancialOrdereightInsuranceforLivelihoodsandHomeValues107nineMacroMarkets:TradingtheBiggestRisks121tenIncome-LinkedLoans:ReducingtheRisksofHardshipandBankruptcy139elevenInequalityIn