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1、Availableonlineatwww.sciencedirect.comMathematicsandComputersinSimulation78(2008)450458Chinaspost-1978experienceinoutboundtourismChristineLima,∗,YingWangbaDepartmentofTourismandHospitalityManagement,UniversityofWaikato,NewZealandbDepartmentofTourism,Leisure,Hote
2、landSportManagement,GriffithUniversity,AustraliaAvailableonline1February2008AbstractIn1978,DengXiao-Pingintroducedeconomicreformsandtheopen-doorpolicyinChina.Sincethen,theChinesegovernmentstartedtorecognizetourismasameanstoeconomicdevelopmentandmodernisation.Chin
3、eseoutboundtourismhasbeenmanagedandregulatedbytheApprovedDestinationStatus(ADS)system,whichisbasedonbilateraltourismagreementbetweenChinaandoverseasdestinations.Theratio-to-movingaveragetechniqueandBoxJenkins(1970)univariatetimeseriesmodellingareusedtoanalyseChi
4、nesetouristarrivalpatternstoAustraliafortheperiod19842004.Testsforstationarityinthetimeseriesoftouristarrivalsarealsoconducted.©2008IMACS.PublishedbyElsevierB.V.Allrightsreserved.Keywords:Chinaopen-doorpolicy;Chineseoutboundtourism;ADSsystem;Timeseriesmodelling1
5、.IntroductionIn1978,DengXiao-Pingintroducedeconomicreformsandtheopen-doorpolicyinChina.Sincethen,theChinesegovernmentstartedtorecognizetourismasameanstoeconomicdevelopmentandmodernisation.Althoughinterna-tionaltravelbyChinesecitizensforleisurepurposeswasnotpermi
6、ttedimmediatelyaftertheimplementationoftheopen-doorpolicy,thegovernmenthasgraduallyeaseditscontroloveroutboundtravel.Economicdevelopmentandimprovementinlivingstandards,aswellaspoliticalliberationinChinahavecontributedtothegrowthininternationaltraveldemand.Additi
7、onally,thesupportiveroleoftheChinesegovernmentinoutboundtourismdevelopmentandChinasinclusionintheWorldTradeOrganisationhaveandwillensureacontinuingeaseontravelrestrictions,andenhancetheopportunitiesforChinesecitizenstotraveloverseas.Sincetheimplementationoftheop
8、en-doorpolicyin1982,tourismdevelopmentinChinahasexperiencedrapidgrowth,makingthecountrythefifthlargestinternationaltourismdestinationintermsofbothtouristarrivalsandtou