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1、河北经贸大学硕士学位论文AbstractInearly1990s,earningsforecastappliedtocompulsorydisclosurepolicy.Duetovariousreasons,qualityofearningsforecastwasunsatisfactory.In2001,thesecuritiesregulatorycommissionchangedcompulsorydisclosureintovoluntarydisclosure,toseeksignalroleo
2、fearningsforecast.However,inthecapitalmarketthisinformationhasbecomefewer.Accordingtostatistics,from1990to2001,totally97.32%ofIPOSdisclosedtheinformation,andfrom2001to2003,theratiosofIPOsdisclosingearningsforecastwere71.43%,28.79%and7.58%respectively.Evide
3、ntly,thevoluntarydisclosureoftheprofitforecasthasbeenadownwardtrend.Basedonthebackground,thepapermakesstudyfactorsresultinginthefewerearningforecastinformationincapitalmarket.Thepaperiscomposedoffivechapters.Chapter1reviewstheformerresearchliteraturesandth
4、eoriesconcerningearningsforecast’sdisclosure.Moreover,researchcontentsandresearchframeareshowedintheChapter.Chapter2reviewsthebasictheoriesofthedisclosureofaccountinginformationbyfreewill.Basedonthereviewedtheories,thearticlediscussesmanyfactorsthatmakeinf
5、luenceonthewillingnessofdeclarationofearningsforecastinformationfromtheaspectsofinternalmotivationoflistedcompanies,outsideconditionsandotherfactorswhichlimitthevoluntarydisclosureofearningsforecast.Thechapter3andchapter4arecorepartsofthispaper.Inchapter3,
6、theauthorselectslistedcompaniesthatinitiallypublicofferfrom2001to2004assamples,andseparatelycountsthequantityofIPOswhichdisclosingearningsforecastinformationinmainboardmarketandmid-&mini-sizedboardmarket.Thestatisticsresultreflectsthatthecompaniesdon’tshow
7、willingnesstodisclosetheearningsforecastnotonlyinmainboardmarketbutalsoinmid&mini-sizedboardmarket.Thechapter4intheoryanalyzesthereasonswhytherearefewofIPOsdisclosingearningsforecastvoluntarily,especiallyinrecentyears.It’sfoundthatsupplyanddemandofthiskind
8、ofinformationisoutofbalance.Itislackofefficientearningforecastinformationsystemininformationmarketofchina.InefficientII我国上市公司盈利预测信息自愿性披露研究securitiesmarket,suchasimperfectissuingpriceandenvironmentoflaws,makes
