Agricultual Projections to 2020.pdf

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1、USDAAgriculturalUnitedStatesProjectionsto2020DepartmentofAgricultureOfficeoftheInteragencyAgriculturalProjectionsCommitteeChiefEconomistWorldAgriculturalWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard,ChairOutlookBoardEconomicResearchServiceLong-termFarmServiceAgencyProjectionsReportFore

2、ignAgriculturalServiceOCE-2011-1AgriculturalMarketingServiceFebruary2011OfficeoftheChiefEconomistOfficeofBudgetandProgramAnalysisRiskManagementAgencyNaturalResourcesConservationServiceNationalInstituteofFoodandAgricultureStrongglobalagriculturaldemandprojectedtokeepU.S.

3、netfarmincomehistoricallyhighBilliondollars100U.S.netfarmincome755025019851990199520002005201020152020USDALong-termProjectionsOrderAdditionalCopiesofThisReportOnline:Visitwww.ntis.gov.ByPhone:Dial1-800-999-6779.TollfreeintheUnitedStatesandCanada.Orcall1-703-605-6000.Ask

4、forUSDAAgriculturalProjectionsto2020(OCE-2011-1).USDAAgriculturalProjectionsto2020.OfficeoftheChiefEconomist,WorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard,U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture.PreparedbytheInteragencyAgriculturalProjectionsCommittee.Long-termProjectionsReportOCE-2011-1,100pp.Abs

5、tractThisreportprovidesprojectionsfortheagriculturalsectorthrough2020.Projectionscoveragriculturalcommodities,agriculturaltrade,andaggregateindicatorsofthesector,suchasfarmincomeandfoodprices.Theprojectionsarebasedonspecificassumptionsaboutmacroeconomicconditions,policy

6、,weather,andinternationaldevelopments,withnodomesticorexternalshockstoglobalagriculturalmarkets.Provisionsofcurrentlawareassumedtoremainineffectthroughtheprojectionperiod.Theprojectionsareonerepresentativescenariofortheagriculturalsectorforthenextdecade.Theprojectionsin

7、thisreportwerepreparedduringOctoberthroughDecember2010,reflectingacompositeofmodelresultsandjudgment-basedanalyses.Prospectsfortheagriculturalsectorintheneartermreflectmarketadjustmentstothesupply-and-demandconditionsunderlyingrecentpriceincreasesformanyfarmcommodities.

8、Inresponse,globalagriculturalproductionincreasesin2011,particularlyforgrains.Productionadjustmentsaremadeinthe