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1、CharacterizingUncertaintyofFutureClimateChangeProjectionsusingHierarchicalBayesianModels*UniversityPressScholarshipOnlineOxfordScholarshipOnlineBayesianStatistics9JoséM.Bernardo,M.J.Bayarri,JamesO.Berger,A.P.Dawid,DavidHeckerman,AdrianF.M.Smith,andMik
2、eWestPrintpublicationdate:2011PrintISBN-13:9780199694587PublishedtoOxfordScholarshipOnline:January2012DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199694587.001.0001CharacterizingUncertaintyofFutureClimateChangeProjectionsusingHierarchicalBayesianModels*ClaudiaTebaldiB
3、runoSansóRichardL.SmithDOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199694587.003.0021AbstractandKeywordsTheuseofprojectionsfromensemblesofclimatemodelstocharacterizefutureclimatechangeatregionalscaleshasbecomethemostwidelyadoptedframework,asopposedtowhatwasstandardpra
4、cticeuntiljustafewyearsagowhenasinglemodel'sprojectionsconstitutedthebasisforarguingaboutfuturechangesandtheirimpacts.Itisbelievedthatcomparingandsynthesizingsimulationsofmultiplemodelsiskeytoquantifyingabestestimateofthefuturechangesanditsuncertainty
5、.Inthelastfewyearstherehasbeenanexplosionofliteratureinclimatechangesciencewheremostlyheuristicmethodsofsynthesizingtheoutputofmultiplemodelshavebeenproposed,andthestatisticalliteratureisshowingmoreinvolvementbyourcommunityaswell,oflate.InthispaperPag
6、e1of24CharacterizingUncertaintyofFutureClimateChangeProjectionsusingHierarchicalBayesianModels*wegiveabriefoverviewofthemainstreamsofresearchinthisareaandthenfocusonourrecentwork,throughwhichwehaveproposedtheframeworkofhierarchicalBayesianmodelstocomb
7、ineinformationfrommodelsimulationsandobservations,inordertoderiveposteriorprobabilitiesoftemperatureandprecipitationchangeatregionalscales.Keywords:Climatechange,Climatemodels,Ensembles,Bayesianhierarchicalmodels,ForecastvalidationSummaryTheuseofproje
8、ctionsfromensemblesofclimatemodelstocharacterizefutureclimatechangeatregionalscaleshasbecomethemostwidelyadoptedframework,asopposedtowhatwasstandardpracticeuntiljustafewyearsagowhenasinglemodel'sprojectionsconstitutedthebasisforarguingaboutfut
