有关定期报告房地产市场趋稳库存压力制约房价

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1、Report

2、MacroAnalysisRegularReportPropertyPricesUnderPressuresWithSuppliesUp26Mar2012USEconomicDataWeeklyWrapKeyDataEconomicData/EventReview:USA%11E12E¾FebruaryhousingstartsmissexpectationsbutthegrowthrateonayearoverGDP1.61.8yearbasisreachesnewhighsinceApril2010,whichindicatesanimprovingtrendi

3、nCPI3.32.5thehousingmarket.Unemployment9.08.8¾HigherthanexpectedbuildingpermitsareexpectedtoaddfueltotheTradebalance/GDP-3.2-3.0housingmarket.Fiscal¾Februaryexistinghomesalesslippedbuttheseasonallyadjustedannualrate-8.7-7.2balance/GDPof4.59millionsisatthehighlevelinrecenttwoyears,whichshoweds

4、ignsofPolicyrate0.250.25stabilizing.DollarIndex79.081.0¾FHFAHousePriceIndexremainsunchangedinJanuary,lowerthantheEurozone%11E12Emarketexpectationofanincreaseof0.4%.TheexcesssupplymaypreventaGDP1.5-0.5significantpricereboundintheshorttermandmayrepresentahurdletothenewCPI2.51.9homesales.Housing

5、priceisexpectedtoincreasewhentheshadowinventorydropsUnemployment1010.2tothenormallevel.Trade-0.5-0.9¾TheLEIgrowthratecomparedwiththeprecedingyeardecreasesinbalance/GDPFiscalFebruary.Theexpansionrateofmanufacturingsectormayslowdown.-5.5-4.0balance/GDPPolicyrate11EconomicData/EventProspects:Dol

6、larIndex1.341.25¾FocusondurablegoodsordersdataandconsumerconfidenceindexthisSource:Bloomberg,ChinaMerchantsweek.TherecentimprovementofthelabormarketwillbolsterthegrowthofpersonalSecuritiesincomeandspendings,whichinturnwillstimulatethegrowthofdurablegoodsorders.Further,thepick-upinthejobmarket

7、andthereboundinthefinancialmarketareexpectedtoenhancetheconsumerconfidence.However,theReuters/MichiganUniversityofMichiganConsumerSentimentIndexunexpectedlyfellto74.3inMarch,whichmayreflectthenegativeimpactscausedbytheinflationarypressure.Thefinaldataoftheconsumersentimentindexmayprovidemorec

8、lues.QingLI852-31896142qingli@cmschina.com.cnDr.CliffZHAO852-31896126wenlizhao@cmschina.com.cnDr.DavidXIE86-755-83295524xieyx@cmschina.com.cn敬请阅读末页的重要说明研究报告

9、宏观点评报告定期报告房地产市场趋稳库存压力制约房价2012年3月26日美国宏观数据周报（2012年3月第4周）主要预测1、数据回顾：美国ó2月的房屋开建量略低于市场预期，