有关定期报告政策继续支持房地产市场回暖

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1、Report

2、MacroAnalysisModerateRecoveryinHousingMarketContinueswithPolicyRegularReportSupportrd24September2012USEconomicDataWeeklyWrap（3WeekSeptember)KeyDataEconomicData/EventReview:USA%1112E¾Totalhousingstartswereat750thousand(SAAR)inAugust,lowerthanGDP1.72.0expected,butup2.3%fromJulyandup

3、29.1%fromlastAugust.ThestabilizingCPI3.172.5trendofhousingmarkethasnotchanged.However,itisimportanttonotethattheUnemployment9.08.2numberofAugusthousingstartsisaboutone-thirdofthe2.27million,thenumberofTradebalance/GDP-3.14-3.0housingstartsatJanuary2006.Therealestatemarkethasnotbeenrecove

4、redtotheFiscalextenttostronglysupporttheeconomicgrowth.-8.2-7.2balance/GDPPolicyrate0.250.25¾Augustexistinghomesalesclimbed7.8%to4.82million,betterthanDollarIndex80.18781.0expected.Ontheotherside,Augustmedianexisting-homepricewas$187,400,upEurozone%1112E9.5%YoY,reflectinganincreaseinmark

5、etdemand.IncreasingexistinghomessalesGDP1.4-0.5andpriceswouldbeanencouragingsign.TakingintoaccounttheaffordablehouseCPI2.692.1pricesandlowmortgageinterestrates,wemaintaintheestimatethatrealestateUnemployment10.1710.6marketwillcontinuetorecovermoderately.Trade-0.33-0.1balance/GDPFiscal¾Th

6、eNewYorkFed's"EmpireState"generalbusinessconditionsindex-4.2-3.8balance/GDPdroppedto-10.41andtheFederalReserveBankofPhiladelphiasaiditsindexofPolicyrate11regionalmanufacturingactivityhadareadingof-1.9inSeptember.AnyreadingEUR/USD1.301.25belowzeroindicatescontraction.Inapositivelight,newo

7、rdersindexreboundedbacktothepositiveterritory.Thedownwardrisksarelimited.Ingeneral,weakSource:Bloomberg,ChinaMerchantsindicatorsimpliedthatmanufacturingsectorwillcontributelesstotheeconomicSecuritiesgrowth.¾TheConferenceBoardLeadingEconomicIndex(LEI)fortheU.S.declined0.1percentinAugustto

8、95.7,indicatingweakergrowthprospectthanthepreviousmonth.ISMManufacturingNewOrdersIndexhasdraggeddowntheleadingindexfortwoconsecutivemonths.Financialconditionsarethemainpositivefactorsfortheleadingindexrecently.QingLI852-31896142qingli@cmschina.com.cnDr.CliffZHAO852-318961