【国防经济学英文论文】The Economic Impact of the Iraq War and Higher Military Spending

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1、TheEconomicImpactoftheIraqWarandHigherMilitarySpendingDeanBakerMay2007CenterforEconomicandPolicyResearch1611ConnecticutAvenue,NW,Suite400Washington,D.C.20009202-293-5380www.cepr.netiiContentsExecutiveSummary......................................................

2、.......................................................................3Introduction..........................................................................................................................................5TheImpactofHigherMilitarySpending:What

3、theModelShows..............................................5HowSpendingontheMilitaryandtheEnvironmentCostJobs..................................................8Conclusion...........................................................................................

4、.................................................9Appendix.............................................................................................................................................10AbouttheAuthorsDeanBakerisCo-directorattheCenterforEconomica

5、ndPolicyResearchinWashington,DC.TheEconomicImpactoftheIraqWarandHigherMilitarySpendingz3ExecutiveSummaryTherehasbeenrelativelylittleattentionpaidtotheIraqWar'simpactontheU.S.economy.Itisoftenbelievedthatwarsandmilitaryspendingincreasesaregoodfortheeconomy.Thisi

6、snotgenerallytrueinmoststandardeconomicmodels.Infact,mostmodelsshowthatmilitaryspendingdivertsresourcesfromproductiveuses,suchasconsumptionandinvestment,andultimatelyslowseconomicgrowthandreducesemployment.Inordertogetanapproximationoftheeconomicimpactoftherece

7、ntincreaseinmilitaryspendingassociatedwiththewarsinIraqandAfghanistan,theCenterforEconomicandPolicyResearchcommissionedGlobalInsighttorunasimulationwithitsmacroeconomicmodel.ItproducedasimulationoftheimpactofanincreaseinannualU.S.militaryspendingequalto1percent

8、ofGDP,approximatelytheactualincreaseinspendingcomparedwiththepre-warbudget(seeappendix).WeselectedtheGlobalInsightmodelforthisanalysisbecauseitisacommonlyusedandwidelyrespec