硕士论文：基于实物期权理论的企业并购价值的研究

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1、摘要在市场不断变化的环境中，企业的并购活动风起云涌。企业作为一个最基本的经济元素，在并购活动中担负着主要的角色。获得利润并且不断地成长是每一个企业的终极目标，只有准确的评估价值才能够决定企业未来的发展和并购的成败，因此企业价值的评估对于科学合理地分析企业并购是极为重要的。在并购中，财务人员的判断和知识具有非常突出的作用，企业的决策层要高度重视财务方面的信息，只有这样才能确保并购活动为企业创造出巨大的价值。企业并购是企业发展壮大中资本经营的一种方式，对于企业在激烈的市场中处于优势地位起着重要的作用。以往企业并购价值的研究集中在传统的价值分析方式，注重对企业并购价值定性分析，文章从实物期

2、权的角度对企业并购的价值进行定量分析，文中对几种传统的价值分析方法进行比较，重点从实物期权的角度来分析企业并购的价值。在分析案例时，对比了折现现金流量法和实物期权法的结论，形成了在不确定性条件下利用实物期权分析方法的体系。此外，本文采用了较新的案例来分析实物期权的应用性，证明了实物期权方法的合理性。关键词：企业并购价值；实物期权；折现现金流量AbstractInMergersandAcquisitions(M&A),Enterprisevalue,asawhole,isbasedonthebasisofcontinuingoperations,Dependingonthecompan

3、y'sfutureprofitability.Businessvaluation,inessence,isarealisticandsubjectivejudgements,Butitdoesnotmeanthatitcoulddictateprices,Businessvaluationisbasedoncertainfinancialtheoriesandmodelsaswellasprofessionalinsightandexperience-based.Valueoftheassessmentresultsdirectlyrelatedtothesuccessorfailu

4、reofM&A.BusinessgrowthinM&Aisameansofcapitaloperation,toenterprisesinthefiercecompetitioninadominantpositionplaysanimportantrole.Inthepast,thevalueofM&Afocusedonthevalueoftraditionalways,focusingonthevalueofqualitativeanalysisofM&A.IanalyzethevalueofM&Aintherealoptionsperspective.Thispaperalsof

5、ocusfromthewayofrealoptionstoanalysisthevalueofM&A,comparingseveraltraditionalanalysismethods.Whenanalyzingthecase,Icomparetheconclusionbetweenthediscountcashflowandrealoptionsmethod.So,Ichoosetherealoptionssysteminuncertainlyconditions.Inaddition,mypaperchoosearelativelycasetoanalyzetheapplica

6、tionofrealoptions,andshowtherealoptionsapproachisreasonable.KeyWords：ThevalueofM&A;Realoptions;Discountcashflow目录摘要ABSTRACT第一章导言································································································································11.1研究背景和意义····························

7、·························································································11.1.1研究背景·······························································································································11.1