基于灰色模型的华北六省(市)区农业水资源需求量预测-研究

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1、AbstractNorthChinabelongstOtheseriouswaterresourcesshortageregion．Alongwiththerapidlyeconomicdevelopment，thepopulationgrowthandtheimprovementofpeople’Slivingqualityonwaterresourcesdemandincreasinggradually!thecontradictionofwaterresourcesbetweensupplyanddemandiSincreasinglyout

2、standing．丁heexcessoftheminingofgroundwaterresourceintheNorthChinaregionhascausedmultiplefunnelareas!thatseriousecologicalandenvironmentalproblemshaveappeared．AgricultureinNonhChinaiSthemajorwateruser．tOsomeextenttheeffectivewatersavingofagriculturecanalleviatethecrisisofwaterr

3、esourceinNorthChinaregion．TheforecastingofAgriculturalwaterdemandiSthecomprehensiveutilizationofwaterresourcesplanningthatiSthebaseofsustainabledevelopment．1nordertOmeetthedemandofwaterresources．thedevelopmentofascientificlong·termwaterresourcessupplyanddemandplanshouldbemade．

4、theneedforscientificwaterdemandforecastshouldbemet．ThisstudyusesscenarioanalysisbasedonsixprovincesofNorthChinawaterresourcesquantityandeachmainbranchwatersituationanalysis．bythegreymodelGM(1．1)，andseparatelyfromthe”supply-decidedneed”and”need．decidedsupply”twoangleson2015agri

5、culturalwateruseforecast．Bythetwopredictionperspectiveofthebalanceofsupplyanddemand，fromthetheorythatthe2015sixprovincesjnNorthChinaAgriculturalWatergaphasbeenfound．Forthewholestudy．thewholeareaofNorthChinaforecastandforecastfromthe”supply．decidedneed”and”need-decidedsupply”tw

6、oanglesaretakenasthetwopointsofinnovation．nisstudyfoundthat．thereiSanotchinBeijingcity．]mnjI‘ncity．HebejProvince!ShanxiProvincefourprovincesaviculturewaterin2015．andagriculturewatergapoftheHebeiprovinceiSthebiggest!thatitiS4．62billionm3：thelnnerMongoliaandShandongtwoprovincesa

7、ftersatisfyingtheiragriculturalprodiJctionwaterneedin2015willrespectivelyhavesurplus11．16billionm’andl7．63billionm’．Fromthewholepointofview，theregionofNonhChinain2015willhavesurplus18．45billionm’waterforagriculture．butbecauseofthewaternaturalresourcesregionalreasons?thesesurpl

8、uswaterresourcescannotalleviatetheproblemofshortageofwaterofB