剩余产量模型的短期预报和模型选择的初步分析

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1、剩余产量模型的短期预报和模型选择PreIiminaryStudyonShortTermPredictionandModeSeIectionofSurpIusProductionModeAbstractBasedonthedevelopmenthistoryofourcoastalfisheries，thispaperusesMonteCarlosimulationmethodtomodeltwokindsofoverexploitedfisheries，whichisalsocalledpredatoryfisheriesThen，twoki

2、ndsofstockassessmentmodelsareappliedtothetwosimulatedfisheriesundertwodifferentwhitenoise1evels，duringwhichprocessthreemodelselectioncriterionsareusedtoselectthemoreappropriateoneforstockassessmentInaddition，fromtwodifferentperspectives(inputcontrolandoutputcontr01)，thispap

3、ersets4fisheriesmanagementmeasureswhichmightbeadoptedtomanageoverexploitedfisheriesFisheriesmanagementmeasurel：maintainthefishingeffortatcertainlevel，permittingslightchangesFisheriesmanagementmeasure2：reducecertainamountoffishingeffortperyearInthispaper，thereducedamountoffi

4、shingisdefinedas125percentofthefishingeffortofthecurrentyear．Fisheriesmanagementmeasure3：maintainannualcatchatcertainlevel，allowingslightchangesInthispaper，annualcatchisdefinedas80percentofthefishingcatchofthecurrentfisheriesFisheriesmanagementmeasure4：inshortperiod(about2—

5、5years)fishingcatchwillbecontrolledtoincreaseyearbyyearoFenjoya1inearincrease1nthispaper，theinitimallowingcatchformanagementmeasure4iSdefinedas80percentofthefishingcatchoftheeurrentfisheryandincreasedcatchhasfirstorderlineaFrelationshiPwithyears剩余产盈模型的短期预报和模型选择Afterthat，app

6、]yselectedstockassessmentmodeltotwokindsofsimufatedfisheriesattwodifferentwbitenoiseIevelSunderthecontrolof4presetfisheriesmanagementmeasures，respectivelyBypredictingthechangingtrendsofthetwosimulatedfisheriesatdifferentwhitenoiselevelSunderthemanagementof4pre—setfisheriesm

7、easures．simulatethechangesofallowablestockbiomassandtherebymakeriskassessmentfortherespondedfisheriesmanagementmeasuresSOthattoprovidenecessarytheoreticalbasisforthedesignoffisberiesmanagementpolicyandlawsResultshows，itiSquiteimpossiblefortheconservationofoverexploitedfishe

8、ry1or2iffisheriesmanagementmeasure1or2wasseparatelyimplementedEvenworse，itmightres