某地市玉米总产量预报模型.doc

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1、本科毕业论文题目：日照玉米总产量预报模型目录摘要·································································ⅡABSTRACT····························································Ⅲ1前言1.1研究的目的和意义·····················································11.2国外研究现状·······································

2、················21.3研究容·····························································32资料来源及处理方法2.1资料来源·····························································42.2处理方法····························································43玉米产量预测的灰色模型3.1GM(1,1)模型的建模原理··············

3、·······························73.2GM(1,1)模型的建模过程及求解·······································73.3结果与分析···························································84玉米产量回归分析预报模型4.1日照地区状况及玉米生理特征··········································114.2模型假设及符号说明······························

4、····················124.3玉米产量回归分析预报模型············································134.4日照玉米产量分析及预报··············································134.5日照玉米单产的滑动平均预报方法······································144.6玉米产量的预测······················································215结论···

5、······························································24辞··································································25参考文献······························································26摘要本文采用省气象局、省日照市气象局，省日照市农业局等不同地区（其中在三个试验点）进行的实验数据，其中包括1971—2008年的玉米产量，种植面积资

6、料以及同期的气象资料等。通过滑动平均法对单产量进行处理，利用灰色模型对单产量进行简单的处理预测，分离趋势产量与气象产量，用多项式法对趋势产量进行模拟和分析。同时利用SPSS软件的相关性分析，回归分析等功能对数据进行处理，找出相关性因子，并得到回归方程，进而模拟气象产量，得到玉米产量与气象因子之间的关系，最后预测实际的玉米产量。分析结果表明：日照市的玉米气象产量主要同播种期，成熟期等重要时期的相对湿度，日照，降水量和其他一些气象因子有关。在分析模拟的基础上，建立日照单产量模拟预测的计算机模型，初步开发了日照玉米产量的预报系统。关键词:玉米；回归分

7、析；气象产量；趋势产量；灰色模型PredictionModelsofMaizeYieldinRizhaoABSTRACTBytheexperimentaldatacomefromMeteorologicalBureauofShandongProvince,RizhaoCityMeteorologicalBureau,RizhaoCityAgricultureBureauotherregionsofRizhao,includingcornproductionin1971-2008,cultivationareasandmeteorological

8、dataandinformationinthesameperiod,Agraymodelisestablishedthroughthemovingav