剩余产量模型的短期预报和模型选择的初步-.研究

《剩余产量模型的短期预报和模型选择的初步-.研究》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。

1、剩余产量模型的短期预报和模型选择PreIiminaryStudyonShortTermPredictionandModeSeIectionofSurpIusProductionModeAbstractBasedonthedevelopmenthistoryofourcoastalfisheries，thispaperusesMonteCarlosimulationmethodtomodeltwokindsofoverexploitedfisheries，whichisalsocalledpredatoryfisheriesThen，twokindsofstockassessmen

2、tmodelsareappliedtothetwosimulatedfisheriesundertwodifferentwhitenoise1evels，duringwhichprocessthreemodelselectioncriterionsareusedtoselectthemoreappropriateoneforstockassessmentInaddition，fromtwodifferentperspectives(inputcontrolandoutputcontr01)，thispapersets4fisheriesmanagementmeasureswhic

3、hmightbeadoptedtomanageoverexploitedfisheriesFisheriesmanagementmeasurel：maintainthefishingeffortatcertainlevel，permittingslightchangesFisheriesmanagementmeasure2：reducecertainamountoffishingeffortperyearInthispaper，thereducedamountoffishingisdefinedas125percentofthefishingeffortofthecurrenty

4、ear．Fisheriesmanagementmeasure3：maintainannualcatchatcertainlevel，allowingslightchangesInthispaper，annualcatchisdefinedas80percentofthefishingcatchofthecurrentfisheriesFisheriesmanagementmeasure4：inshortperiod(about2—5years)fishingcatchwillbecontrolledtoincreaseyearbyyearoFenjoya1inearincreas

5、e1nthispaper，theinitimallowingcatchformanagementmeasure4iSdefinedas80percentofthefishingcatchoftheeurrentfisheryandincreasedcatchhasfirstorderlineaFrelationshiPwithyears剩余产盈模型的短期预报和模型选择Afterthat，app]yselectedstockassessmentmodeltotwokindsofsimufatedfisheriesattwodifferentwbitenoiseIevelSunder

6、thecontrolof4presetfisheriesmanagementmeasures，respectivelyBypredictingthechangingtrendsofthetwosimulatedfisheriesatdifferentwhitenoiselevelSunderthemanagementof4pre—setfisheriesmeasures．simulatethechangesofallowablestockbiomassandtherebymakeriskassessmentfortherespondedfisheriesmanagementmea

7、suresSOthattoprovidenecessarytheoreticalbasisforthedesignoffisberiesmanagementpolicyandlawsResultshows，itiSquiteimpossiblefortheconservationofoverexploitedfishery1or2iffisheriesmanagementmeasure1or2wasseparatelyimplementedEvenworse，itmightres