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ID:34592370
大小:5.31 MB
页数:96页
时间:2019-03-08
《滑坡预测预报模型比较的分析》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、滑坡预测预报模型比较分析}两斐我国是滑坡频发的国家,每年由于滑坡灾害造成的生命财产损失非常巨大。滑坡作为一种十分严重与普遍的全球性自然灾害,已经成为一个不可忽视的大难题。滑坡预测预报对滑坡的预防治理有着重要的指导意义,是减轻滑坡灾害所造成损失的最有效方法与途径之一,因此,进行滑坡预测预报的研究具有非常重要的工程价值与意义。在广泛阅读文献的基础上,本文对滑坡灾害及其预测预报的理论与方法进行了系统的比较分析与总结综述。首先在分析滑坡形成机理、孕育发展演变特性的基础上,对滑坡系统的影响因素与类型进行了系统地归纳分类。其次,通过对滑坡预测预报详细地分析研究,总结
2、得出了滑坡预测预报程序。依据当前滑坡预测预报模型的发展阶段,阐述了各模型的建模理论,分析得出了模型的适用范围和优缺点,并对预测预报模型进行了归纳分类,得出了模型分类统计表。最后,结合我国典型的甘肃省永靖县黄茨滑坡实例,基于确定性灰色GM(1,1)预测预报模型与非确定性协同预测预报模型,进行了详细的算例比较分析。关键词:滑坡;预测预报;防灾减灾;模型滑坡预测预报模型比较分析AbstractChinaisalandslide·pronecountry,andlandslidehascausedenorinouslossesoflifeandpropertye
3、veryyear.Landslideasaveryseriousandwidespreadglobalnaturaldisaster,hasbecomeamajorproblemwhichcannotbeignofed.Landslideforecastingandpredictionisoneofthemosteffectivemethodsandwaystoreducelosses,whichhasimportantguidingsignificanceforthepreventionandmanagementoflandslides,therefo
4、re,forecastingandpredictionoflandslideshasaveryimportantengineeringvalueandsignificance.Inthethesis,thetheoriesandmethodsoflandslidehazardforecastingandpredictionhavebeensystematicallyreviewedonthebasisofextensivereading.Firstly,onthebasisoftheformationmechanismandthenaturedevelo
5、pmentofevolutionaryprocesses,theinfluencingfactorsandthetypesoflandslidehavebeensummarizedandclassified,systematically.Secondly,onthebasisoftheresearchoflandslideforecastingandprediction,theprogramoflandslideforecastingandpredictionhasbeenobtained.Basedonthecurrentdevelopmentofth
6、elandslideforecastingandprediction,themodelingtheoryofmodelsoflandslideforecastingandpredictionhasbeendescribedafteraseriesofsystematicresearchandanalysis,moreover,theapplicationsandadvantages/disadvantagesofeachmodelhavebeensummedup.Themodelshavebeencategorizedandobtainedthemode
7、lclassifu:ationtables.Finally,usingthematerialofthetypicalHuangCiLandslideExampleinYongJingCounty,GanSuProvince,China),onthebasisofthedeterministicgreyGM(1,1)modelandnon·deterministicsynergymodel,thecomparativeanalysisresultshavebeengivenbythenumericalexample.Keywords:landslide;f
8、orecastingandprediction;disasterpreventi
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