天津市工业能源消费碳排放与其绩效分析分析

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1、AbstractWiththerapidindustrialeconomicdevelopmentinTianjin，industrialenergyconsumptionhasgowncontinuouslyandaccountsfor70％ofthecity’Stotalenergyconsumption．Setupcarbonemissionsmeasurementmethods，andcarryOUtcarbonemissionstimeseriesanalysisforindustrialenergyconsumptioninTian

2、jinduringtheperiodof1999-2010．Theresultsshowthat：duringthepastdecade，theaverageannualgrowthrateofindustrialcarbonemissionsfromenergyconsumptionis11．36％，lowerthantheaveragegrowthrateofindustrialeconomy(22．41％)；theindustrialenergyintensityandcarbonintensitypresentthedownwardtr

3、end，indicatingthattheindustrialenergy—savingandcarbonreductionworkhasachievedsomesuccess．Thereisstillroomforenergystructureadjustment．WiththedecompositionmethodofLMDI。analyzecarbonemissionchangesinfourfactors：industrialeconomyscale，industrystructure，energyefficiencyandenergy

4、structure．Theresultsshowthattheindustrialeconomyscaleisthedominantfactortoraisecarbonemissions，whichcontributesfor57．38％incarbonemissionchange；theimpactsofindustrystructureissmall；theenergyefficiencyisthekeyfactortoreducecarbonemissions，whichcontributesfor30．54％incarbonemiss

5、ionchange；energystructurepromotecarbonemissionincrease．whichcontributesfor1O．85％．Furtherdecompositionanalysiswasundertakeninindustrialsub-sectors，andtheanalysisresultsindicatedthatthedevelopmentofenergy-intensiveindustriesseriouslyaffectedthecarbonemissionfromenergyconsumpti

6、oninTianjin’Sindustrialsub．sectors．Defineindustrialcarbonemissionperformance，andcarryoUtperformanceanalysisforindustrialsub．sectorsinTianjin．In2010，mostofthesub-sectors’performanceishigherthantheaveragelevelofChina，andlowerthanthelevelofBeijingorShenzhen．Establishenergyconsu

7、mptionpredictingmodel．Theresultsshowthat：thecarbonemissionintensityreductiontarget(17％)，whichisrequestedin“12th-fiveyear'’PlanofChina，canbeachievedinTianjin．Select7keyIIAbstractsub-sectorsinTianjinforperformanceresearch，accordingtotheircharactersanddevelopmentpotential，discu

8、ssthereasonforperformancechange，andpredictthefutureperformancein“12th-fivey