煤炭上市公司财务预警模型实证分析

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1、AbstractInglobaleconomization’stoday,inourcountry,everyindustryfacestheunprecedentedvitalityandthechallenge，andastheenergymainitem，thecoalmilleindustry,passingthroughthelongspecialdevelopment，facesdomesticmarketsteepcompetitionandforeignmarketimpactdualpressures，tosurvivewit

2、hdevelops，whilemaintainsthebranchindustrystandserectnotbutactuallyanddevelopsmultiplexindustrypositively,takesthefinancialcontrolmoreandmoreinthesurvival,thecompetitionandthedevelopmentfunction．Inrecentyears，underthecountryindustrialpolicy’Sstimulation，thecoalmineHstedcompan

3、iescarriedonthemassiveexpandinginvestment，inadditionthehistoricaldebt,cause,sthelong-termcreditcapacitynottobestrong,thecashfloweasytohavetheproblem，atthesametime，thecoalmillelistescompanies’externaleconomyandtheinternaloperationenvironmentdaybydayisalsocomplex，thecoalminein

4、dustrybecomesthehighrisktheindustry,thisovenmorehighlightsthefinancialcontrolworktheimportance，especiallyappearedhasneededthesituationtobelistedfinanceearlywarningwork．BecauseOurcountry’Scoalindustryhasitsspecialcharacteristicandthefinancialcharacteristic，butthetraditionalfi

5、nancialearlywarningstudiesmuchtakethemanufacturingindustrytobelistedasabackground，SO，itisunabletosatisfytheparticularrequest，thisarticlewillconductthepointedfinancialearlywarningresearch，thehopeistheresearchcanobtainproperearlywarningconclusion．Thisarticlebasesondomesticandf

6、oreignfinancialearlywarningtheorysummal'y,unifyingourcountry’Scoalminelistedcompaniespresentsituationaswellasthepresentsituationanalysis，embarkingfromthefinancialcrisisconce醇usingSPSSl7．0，carryingonthefactorialanalysistotheselection30samplecompanies’data,earlywarningindicato

7、rsintosolvencyindicators，profitabilityindicators，assetmanagementcapabilityindex，growthcapacityindicatorsandthelevelofcashflowtargets，meanwhilethesetargetclassificationisfivegranddukefactors，obtainsfmanceearlywarningfactorscoremodelofourcountry’Scoalmillelistedcompanies，thent

8、hroughtheclusteranalysis，dividesinto30samplecompaniessixkinds，carryingonthe