财务预警模型与其实证分析——上市公司财务困境预警

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1、西华大学硕士学位论文第1v页AbstractFinancialcrisisearly-wardingisthecoreofthefinancialpre-waming．Listedcompaniesasatypi∞lmodementerprise，havearelativeeffectivemanagementsystemandmorecompletedfinancialaccountingi面ormatinnexp

2、ore．Thereforeasgoodexumpleoftbefinancialcrisisearlywarnin

3、gmodel，theyaterepresentativeandpractical．Becausecompaniesfacemoreandmoreworldwidecompetitions,someofthemwillfallintocrisisandwillgobankruptevenworse．Financialcrisiswillbadlyaffecteconomyfromvariousaspects．Therefore，effectivelyforecastingfinancialdifficultybeCOIELesthe

4、essentialstepforcommercialbanktomanagecreditriskandalsoforstockinVestorstoreducethebnsine站riskfortheftinvestment．Accordingtocompanies’financialreports，financialratiosormodelsapplied,throughstatisticalmethods，financialcrisisearly-warningsystemanalysescompanies‘abilityo

5、frepayingdebtsandpayoff,soitpredictsprobabilityofcompanies’financialdefiniLToestablishafinancialcrisisearly-warningsystemisaneffectivewaytopreventandcontrolfinancialfailures．IthadbeenknowninforeignandChinesescholars．Thisdissertationwinmainlyfocusonfailedlistedcompanie

6、sasresearchobjectsandinvestigateatargenumberofrelatedliteratures．BasedOHplentyofliteraturereviewingandconsideringthecharactersofChiilesosecuritymarket,STand‘STaredefined勰failure．^Lftercollectingvariouscase8anddatafromfailedlistedcompanies，theresearchwasconductedOilpre

7、-wamingofthefailmeoflistedcompanies．Ontheanalysis，thisdissertationanatomizesoasesofSTstocks，andanalyzesrea80nsoffailurefromthefollowingthreeaspects：Industryfactor,stockframe,intendaneemechanism,businessdiversificationandinvestment．ThenconsideredbothIe蜘nsandcases．thech

8、aractersoffailureinlistedcompanieswassummarizedasdeteriorationofliquidityandleverage，profitability,activity,growingability,structureandcashflow．Suchresultsareveryhelpfulinchoosingvariables．Basedonthedataacquiredfromlistedcorporations，thisarticleanalyzesfinancialcharac

9、terofdifferenceindustry觚Theresultrevealedthatthefinancialcharacterbetweendifferenceindustriesisdistinct．Sothepre-warningmode