人民币实际汇率变动对美中贸易逆差影响的实证分析——以行业为视角

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1、AbstractSincefinancialcrisishappenedinUSAin2007,thehugeUSA-ChinatradedeficitshascontributedtotheupdateoftradeconflictsbetweentwocountriesandtheAmericangovernmenttriedtodefineChinaasacurrencymanipulatorandbragthetheoryoftheRMBappreciation.However,willtheappreciation

2、ofRMBdecreasethetradedeficitsbetweenUSAandChina?ThispaperwillanalyzetherelationshipbetweenchangesoftheRMBrealexchangerateandUSA-Chinatradedeficitsbasedonthemonthlydatafrom1996to2010byusingtheclassicaleconometricsmethods,suchasADFtest,cointegrationandgrangercausalre

3、lationshiptest;andthenwecometothesefourkeyconclusions:(1)Theempiricalanalysisbasedonthemonthlydatafrom1996to2010revealsthatthechangesoftheRMBrealexchangeratecan'texplaintheexpansionofUSA-Chinatradedeficitswellfromthelong-termrespect.(2)Althoughwefindtheyhavealong-t

4、ermstablecointegrationrelationshipbasedontheempiricalresearchfromtheJuly2005to2010,suchrelationshipwillsoonbeprovednottopasstheGrangerCausalTestandthusthereisnoevidencetosupportthatchangesoftheRMBrealexchangerateareduetotheexpansionofUSA-Chinatradedeficits.(3)USA-C

5、hinatradedeficitsfocusesonthefollowingcommodities:Manufacturedgoodsclassifiedchieflybymaterial;Machineryandtransportequipment;miscellaneousmanufacturedarticles.AllthoseresearchresultsstronglychallengedthewrongtheoryoftheRMBappreciation.SuchhugeUSA-Chinatradedeficit

6、scanbepossiblywellexplainedbythefollowingfourreasons:firstly,therespectivecomparativeadvantagesdeterminesthepresenttrademode;secondly,theindustrytransferfromUSAtoChinawillincreasethetradedeficits;thirdly,theextrainvestmentoutofUSAwillbeasignificantcauseofthetradede

7、ficitsexpansion;atlast,theUSAexportbarriersintheHighTechnicalfieldwilldeducetheexporttoChina.Consequently,wecontinueourresearchtomakethreesuggestionsconcerningthistopic:firstly,bothofcountriesmightutilizetheircomparativeadvantagesandpromotethetradestructure;secondl

8、y,bothofthegovernmentshouldholdanobjectiveviewaboutthehugetradedeficitsanddevotedtoconstructafreetrademarket;thirdly,theChinesegovernmentmustpaym