宏观经济波动对tmt行业上市公司绩效影响的实证研究

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1、万方数据AbstractTMTistheacronymsofTechnology，MediaandTelecommunication．InChina，theconceptofTMTwasfirstproposedbyAnalysysInternationalin2006，andthenbecameoneofthemostpopularinvestmentthemes．The2008globalfinancialcrisisendedtheuptrendofChina’Smacro—economy，broughtitin

2、torecessionandfinallyplungeditintoaslump．Asthebarometerofmacro—economy，thestockmarketcrashedspontaneously．However，disregardofthemarketindex，equitiesintheTMTindustryenteredanupward仃endfromthebeginningof2013．Whileeconomyisstilldeteriorating，thepriceofmanyTMTstocks

3、evendoubledduringthisperiodandthereforedrewalotofattention．Theoretically，thepriceofastockisdeterminedbyitscorporateperformanceinthelongterm．Thus，investorsbegantowonderwhetherthesurgeofTMTindustryisbasedoncorporateperformanceandwhetherTMTindustryiscounter-cyclica

4、lornot．Thisthesisisgoingtofocusontheseproblems．First，thethesislookedbackintohistoryandsummarizeddifferentmethodstoevaluatecorporateperfomaanceandthenlistedsomekeyfactorsthatwouldstronglyaffectcorporateperformance，whichwillbereferencedintheempiricalanalysislatero

5、n．Then，thethesiswentthroughrelatedresearchesbybothdomesticandforeignscholars．However，noresearchwasfoundonTMTindustry．Later,theauthorintroducedthedevelopmentofTMTindustryanditsoverallfinanceindicatorsinrecentyearswhichwerelistedingraphs．Preliminaryanalysisshowedt

6、hatcorporateperformanceofTMTindustryisaffectedbymacro—economy．Next，empiricalanalysisprovedthatcorporateperformanceofTMTindustryispositivelycorrelatedwithmacro—economicfluctuation，butthecorrelationcoefficientislessthanthatofotherindustries．Putitanotherway，TMTindu

7、strycouldbetreatedasacounter—cyclicalindustry．Atlast，thethesisdugoutthedeeplogicofallfoursubsectorsofTMTindustryfromtheperspectiveofindustrialanalysis，explainedwhyTMTindustryiscounter—cyclicalandmadeaprospectforthefutureofTM]1industry．Keywords：TMTindustry，corpor

8、ateperformance，macro—economicfluctuationClassificationcode：F86万方数据第一章绪论第一节研究背景及意义2013年年初以来，A股创业板指数展开了一段波澜壮阔的主升浪，从2013年第一个交易日开始计算直至本文的撰稿日2014年2月20日，创业板指数从713．86点一路直上大涨